Robert J. Shiller

Yale University - Cowles Foundation

Box 208281

New Haven, CT 06520-8281

United States

http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue

Cambridge, MA 02138

United States

Yale University - International Center for Finance

Box 208200

New Haven, CT 06520

United States

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

104

DOWNLOADS
Rank 343

SSRN RANKINGS

Top 343

in Total Papers Downloads

66,548

SSRN CITATIONS
Rank 61

SSRN RANKINGS

Top 61

in Total Papers Citations

1,584

CROSSREF CITATIONS

5,623

Scholarly Papers (104)

1.

From Efficient Market Theory to Behavioral Finance

Number of pages: 44 Posted: 08 Nov 2002
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 16,291 (253)
Citation 31

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Speculative Markets, Rational Expectations, Psychology, Anomalies, Excess Volatility, Feedback, Smart Money, Limits to Arbitrage, Short Sales

2.

Bubbles, Human Judgment, and Expert Opinion

Number of pages: 17 Posted: 16 Jul 2001
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 4,540 (2,549)
Citation 4

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Institutional Investors, Investment Professionals, Organizations, Committees, Stock Market, Speculative Markets, Behavioral Finance, Feedback, Groupthink, Representativeness, Heuristic, Conservatism, Subjective Probability, Prudent Person Standard, Erisa, News Media, Attention, Efficient Markets, Conformity Pressures, True Uncertainty

3.

Statement on Prediction Markets

AEI-Brookings Joint Center Related Publication No. 07-11
Number of pages: 8 Posted: 07 May 2007
Stanford University - Department of Economics, Yale University - School of Management, University of South Florida - College of Business, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) - Council on Foreign Relations- Washington D.C., Dartmouth College, Illinois Institute of Technology, Technology Policy Institute, George Mason University, Princeton University, California Institute of Technology - Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Chicago Law School, Stanford University, University of Iowa - Henry B. Tippie College of Business - Department of Economics, University of Iowa - Henry B. Tippie College of Business - Department of Economics, Bocconi University - Department of Economics, California Institute of Technology - Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Maryland, Yale University - Cowles Foundation, Chapman University - Economic Science Institute, Independent, Harvard Law School, Columbia Business School - Finance, University of California, Berkeley - Organizational Behavior & Industrial Relations Group, School of Information and University of Michigan at Ann Arbor - Department of Economics
Downloads 3,939 (3,271)
Citation 28

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prediction markets, public policy, forecasting, regulation

4.

CAPE and the COVID-19 Pandemic Effect

Number of pages: 18 Posted: 19 Oct 2020 Last Revised: 22 Aug 2021
Robert J. Shiller, Laurence Black and Farouk Jivraj
Yale University - Cowles Foundation, The Index Standard and Barclays Investment Bank
Downloads 3,806 (3,462)

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5.

Behavioral Economics and Institutional Innovation

Number of pages: 24 Posted: 22 Feb 2005
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 2,468 (7,141)
Citation 1

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Economics innovation, invention, psychological economics, institutional economics, social insurance, workers'compensation, American Economic Association, Germany, Verein fur Sozialpolitik

Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1630, Yale Economics Department Working Paper No. 28, Yale ICF Working Paper No. 07-16
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 27 Sep 2007 Last Revised: 02 Nov 2007
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 1,826 (11,398)
Citation 12

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home ownership, housing prices, UK housing, US housing

Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership

Number of pages: 46 Posted: 05 Nov 2007 Last Revised: 15 Jul 2010
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 138 (265,999)
Citation 4

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Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market Versus the Housing Market

Number of pages: 26 Posted: 07 Nov 2001
Karl E. Case, John M. Quigley and Robert J. Shiller
Deceased, University of California, Berkeley, College of Letters & Science, Department of Economics (Deceased) and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 1,420 (16,942)
Citation 33

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Consumption, Nonfinancial Wealth, Housing Market, Real Estate

Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market Versus the Housing Market

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 17 Nov 2001 Last Revised: 09 Jul 2021
Karl E. Case, Robert J. Shiller and John M. Quigley
Deceased, Yale University - Cowles Foundation and University of California, Berkeley, College of Letters & Science, Department of Economics (Deceased)
Downloads 510 (70,117)
Citation 140

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8.

Reforming Money Market Funds

Tuck School of Business Working Paper No. 2011-86, Rock Center for Corporate Governance at Stanford University Working Paper No. 109, Columbia Business School Research Paper No. 12-13
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 19 Jan 2011 Last Revised: 20 Feb 2012
Brookings Institution, Harvard University - Department of Economics, Hoover Institution, University of Chicago - Booth School of Business, Stanford University - Graduate School of Business, Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business, University of Chicago, Booth School of Business, Columbia Business School - Finance and Economics, Harvard Business School - Finance Unit, Yale University - Cowles Foundation, Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business, Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Harvard University - Department of Economics and Ohio State University (OSU) - Department of Finance
Downloads 1,803 (11,861)
Citation 3

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9.
Downloads 1,751 ( 12,432)
Citation 84

Narrative Economics

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2069
Number of pages: 58 Posted: 11 Jan 2017 Last Revised: 13 Jan 2017
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 1,644 (13,494)
Citation 15

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Economic Fluctuations, Business Cycles, Story, Meme, Epidemic, SIR Model, Kermack and McKendrick, Multipliers, Bubbles, Depression of 1920, Profiteer, Great Depression, Stock Market Crash, 2008 Financial Crisis, Post-Truth

Narrative Economics

Number of pages: 57 Posted: 23 Jan 2017 Last Revised: 21 Jul 2021
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 107 (321,003)
Citation 50

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One Simple Test of Samuelson's Dictum for the Stock Market

Number of pages: 19 Posted: 04 Nov 2002
Jeeman Jung and Robert J. Shiller
Sangmyung University - Division of Economics & International Trade and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 1,557 (14,651)

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Market Efficiency, Random Walk, Dividend Yield, Dividend Price Ratio, Present Value, Excess Volatility, Gordon Model

One Simple Test of Samuelson's Dictum for the Stock Market

Number of pages: 18 Posted: 21 Nov 2002 Last Revised: 30 Oct 2010
Jeeman Jung and Robert J. Shiller
Sangmyung University - Division of Economics & International Trade and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 77 (395,807)

Abstract:

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11.

Historic Turning Points in Real Estate

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1610
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 04 Jun 2007 Last Revised: 28 Oct 2007
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 1,603 (14,272)
Citation 1

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Home prices, Boom, Bubble, Regime change, Stock market, California, Florida

12.
Downloads 1,372 ( 18,182)
Citation 29

Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets

Yale ICF Working Paper No. 09-08
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 22 May 2009
John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller and Luis M. Viceira
Harvard University - Department of Economics, Yale University - Cowles Foundation and Harvard Business School - Finance Unit
Downloads 956 (30,376)
Citation 24

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Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1696
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 27 May 2009
John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller and Luis M. Viceira
Harvard University - Department of Economics, Yale University - Cowles Foundation and Harvard Business School - Finance Unit
Downloads 322 (119,833)
Citation 6

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Expectations hypothesis, Liquidity, Term premia, TIPS

Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets

Number of pages: 47 Posted: 01 Jun 2009 Last Revised: 12 Jul 2010
John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller and Luis M. Viceira
Harvard University - Department of Economics, Yale University - Cowles Foundation and Harvard Business School - Finance Unit
Downloads 94 (349,820)

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13.
Downloads 1,316 ( 19,303)
Citation 4

Crash Beliefs from Investor Surveys

Number of pages: 34 Posted: 21 Mar 2016
William N. Goetzmann, Dasol Kim and Robert J. Shiller
Yale School of Management - International Center for Finance, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 1,220 (21,270)
Citation 2

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Crash Beliefs, Availability Bias, Investor Surveys

Crash Beliefs from Investor Surveys

Number of pages: 58 Posted: 11 Apr 2016 Last Revised: 04 Jul 2021
William N. Goetzmann, Dasol Kim and Robert J. Shiller
Yale School of Management - International Center for Finance, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 96 (345,125)
Citation 3

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14.

Economists as Worldly Philosophers

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1788
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 12 Mar 2011
Robert J. Shiller and Virginia M. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 1,176 (22,858)
Citation 4

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15.

Radical Financial Innovation

Number of pages: 29 Posted: 30 Apr 2004
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 1,150 (23,622)
Citation 3

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Risk management, institutions, incomplete markets, livelihood insurance, behavioral finance, livelihood risks, home equity insurance, country risks

Low Interest Rates and High Asset Prices: An Interpretation in Terms of Changing Popular Economic Models

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1632, Yale Economics Department Working Paper No. 29, Yale ICF Working Paper No. 07-17
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 22 Oct 2007
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 1,088 (25,209)
Citation 2

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Long-term interest rates, Stock prices, Housing prices, Real interest rates, Liquidity, Money illusion

Low Interest Rates and High Asset Prices: An Interpretation in Terms of Changing Popular Economic Models

Number of pages: 32 Posted: 05 Nov 2007 Last Revised: 19 Jul 2021
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 60 (453,220)
Citation 7

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Changing Times, Changing Values: A Historical Analysis of Sectors within the US Stock Market 1872-2013

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1950
Number of pages: 76 Posted: 11 Jun 2014 Last Revised: 18 Jun 2014
Oliver Bunn and Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Department of Economics and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 1,052 (26,481)
Citation 1

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Cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio, historic valuation of sectors of US economy, long-term predictability

Changing Times, Changing Values: A Historical Analysis of Sectors within the Us Stock Market 1872-2013

Number of pages: 77 Posted: 11 Aug 2014 Last Revised: 28 Feb 2021
Oliver Bunn and Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Department of Economics and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 86 (370,296)
Citation 2

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18.

Speculative Asset Prices (Nobel Prize Lecture)

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1936
Number of pages: 46 Posted: 07 Feb 2014
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 964 (30,487)
Citation 48

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19.
Downloads 892 ( 33,956)
Citation 1

Derivatives Markets for Home Prices

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1648, Yale Economics Department Working Paper No. 46
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 28 Mar 2008 Last Revised: 29 Apr 2008
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 843 (36,164)
Citation 2

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Home price index, Housing futures, Real estate futures, Real estate derivatives, Home equity insurance, Repeat sales indices, Hedging demand

Derivatives Markets for Home Prices

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 23 Apr 2008 Last Revised: 27 Aug 2021
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 49 (498,107)

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20.

Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update

Number of pages: 43 Posted: 08 Apr 2001 Last Revised: 20 Jun 2021
John Y. Campbell and Robert J. Shiller
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 856 (35,950)
Citation 32

Abstract:

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21.

The Many Colours of CAPE

Yale ICF Working Paper No. 2018-22
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 10 Dec 2018
Farouk Jivraj and Robert J. Shiller
Barclays Investment Bank and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 822 (38,020)
Citation 2

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valuation, earnings, CAPE

22.

Aligning Incentives at Systemically Important Financial Institutions

Columbia Business School Research Paper No. 13-18, Fisher College of Business Working Paper
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 28 Mar 2013
Brookings Institution, Harvard University - Department of Economics, Hoover Institution, University of Chicago - Booth School of Business, Stanford University - Graduate School of Business, Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business, University of Chicago, Booth School of Business, Columbia Business School - Finance and Economics, Harvard Business School - Finance Unit, Yale University - Cowles Foundation, Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business, Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and Ohio State University (OSU) - Department of Finance
Downloads 724 (45,169)
Citation 1

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Bonus, compensation, contingent convertible bonds, capital, regulation, financial crisis

23.

Reflections on Finance and the Good Society

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1894
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 09 May 2013
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 695 (47,744)
Citation 5

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Business Ethics, Religion, Reciprocity, Aggression, Hoarding, Repugnance, Speculation, Professional Organizations, Dodd-Frank Act, Teaching, Business Education

Property Derivatives for Managing European Real-Estate Risk

Yale ICF Working Paper No. 09-17
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 15 Aug 2009
Frank J. Fabozzi, Robert J. Shiller and Radu Tunaru
EDHEC Business School, Yale University - Cowles Foundation and University of Sussex
Downloads 683 (48,219)

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real-estate markets, property derivatives, balance guaranteed swaps

Property Derivatives for Managing European Real-Estate Risk

European Financial Management, Vol. 16, Issue 1, pp. 8-26, January 2010
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 28 Dec 2009
Frank J. Fabozzi, Robert J. Shiller and Radu Tunaru
EDHEC Business School, Yale University - Cowles Foundation and University of Sussex
Downloads 3 (814,114)
Citation 8
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25.

Household Reaction to Changes in Housing Wealth

Number of pages: 17 Posted: 30 Apr 2004
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 624 (54,986)

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Wealth effect, home prices, stock prices, consumption, saving, life cycle theory, interest rates, inflation, bubble

26.

Irving Fisher: Debt Deflation and Crises

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1817
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 15 Aug 2011
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 615 (56,017)
Citation 3

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Purchasing power of money, Indexation, Indexed bonds, Depression, Recession, Mortgages, Financial crisis

The Invention of Inflation-Indexed Bonds in Early America

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 04 Dec 2003
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 496 (72,547)

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indexation, inflation history, inflation-indexed securities, inflation-protected securities, index-linked gilts, tabular standard, United States, Massachusetts

The Invention of Inflation-Indexed Bonds in Early America

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 04 Jan 2004 Last Revised: 30 Oct 2021
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 77 (395,807)

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28.

The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors

Number of pages: 40 Posted: 07 Jul 2004 Last Revised: 07 Oct 2021
John Y. Campbell and Robert J. Shiller
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 539 (66,057)
Citation 201

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29.

The Life-Cycle Personal Accounts Proposal for Social Security: An Evaluation

Number of pages: 36 Posted: 12 Apr 2005
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 527 (67,989)

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Private accounts, Lifetime portfolio selection, portfolio choice, pensions, old age insurance, social insurance, stock market, returns, historical simulation, thrift savings plan

30.

Human Behavior and the Efficiency of the Financial System

Number of pages: 59 Posted: 20 Jul 2000 Last Revised: 04 Jun 2021
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 492 (74,023)
Citation 4

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31.

Investor Behavior in the October 1987 Stock Market Crash: Survey Evidence

Number of pages: 43 Posted: 07 Mar 2001 Last Revised: 09 Sep 2021
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 444 (83,728)
Citation 8

Abstract:

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32.

Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to Be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?

Number of pages: 40 Posted: 12 Apr 2004 Last Revised: 07 Oct 2021
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 437 (85,335)
Citation 124

Abstract:

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33.

Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends

Number of pages: 42 Posted: 14 Jan 2001 Last Revised: 13 Nov 2021
John Y. Campbell and Robert J. Shiller
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 361 (106,253)
Citation 85

Abstract:

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34.
Downloads 347 (111,027)
Citation 1

Wealth Effects Revisited 1978-2009

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1784
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 28 Feb 2011
Karl E. Case, John M. Quigley and Robert J. Shiller
Deceased, University of California, Berkeley, College of Letters & Science, Department of Economics (Deceased) and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 205 (188,984)
Citation 1

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Consumption, Nonfinancial wealth, Housing market, Real estate

Wealth Effects Revisited: 1978-2009

Number of pages: 40 Posted: 24 Feb 2011
Karl E. Case, John M. Quigley and Robert J. Shiller
Deceased, University of California, Berkeley, College of Letters & Science, Department of Economics (Deceased) and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 92 (354,760)

Abstract:

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Wealth Effects Revisited 1978-2009

Number of pages: 41 Posted: 07 Mar 2011 Last Revised: 21 Mar 2011
Karl E. Case, John M. Quigley and Robert J. Shiller
Deceased, University of California, Berkeley, College of Letters & Science, Department of Economics (Deceased) and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 50 (493,805)

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35.

Defining Residual Risk-Sharing Opportunities: Pooling World Income Components

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 10 Jul 2001
Stefano Athanasoulis and Robert J. Shiller
University of Notre Dame - Department of Finance and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 347 (111,027)

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Contract design, derivatives, hedging, diversification, macro markets, claims on linear income combinations (CLICs), Pooling World Income Components (pooling-WICs)

36.

The Case for Trills: Giving the People and Their Pension Funds a Stake in the Wealth of the Nation

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1717, Yale ICF Working Paper No. 16
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 09 Aug 2009
Mark J. Kamstra and Robert J. Shiller
York University - Schulich School of Business and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 318 (122,210)
Citation 15

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GDP-linked bonds, Aggregate risk, Income risk, Inflation-indexed bonds, MacroShares, U.S. Treasury, Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (TIPS), Intergenerational risk sharing, International risk sharing, Hedging, Portfolio diversification, Market portfolio

37.

What Have They Been Thinking? Homebuyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets — A 2014 Update

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1876R
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 20 Mar 2015
Karl E. Case, Robert J. Shiller and Anne Thompson
Deceased, Yale University - Cowles Foundation and McGraw-Hill Construction
Downloads 294 (132,831)
Citation 28

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38.

Macro Markets and Financial Security

Number of pages: 19 Posted: 02 Aug 2007
Stefano Athanasoulis, Robert J. Shiller and Eric van Wincoop
University of Notre Dame - Department of Finance, Yale University - Cowles Foundation and University of Virginia - Department of Economics
Downloads 246 (159,199)
Citation 2

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macro markets

39.

The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices

Number of pages: 9 Posted: 06 Jul 2004 Last Revised: 23 May 2012
Sanford J. Grossman and Robert J. Shiller
University of Pennsylvania - Finance Department and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 228 (171,282)
Citation 54

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40.

The Term Structure of Interest Rates

Number of pages: 120 Posted: 16 Jul 2004 Last Revised: 26 Nov 2021
Robert J. Shiller and J. Huston Mcculloch
Yale University - Cowles Foundation and Ohio State University
Downloads 227 (171,990)
Citation 3

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41.
Downloads 206 (188,380)
Citation 10

Wealth Effects Revisited 1975-2012

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1884
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 21 Dec 2012
Karl E. Case, John M. Quigley and Robert J. Shiller
Deceased, University of California, Berkeley, College of Letters & Science, Department of Economics (Deceased) and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 136 (269,139)
Citation 10

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Wealth Effects Revisited: 1975-2012

Number of pages: 34 Posted: 12 Jan 2013
Karl E. Case, John M. Quigley and Robert J. Shiller
Deceased, University of California, Berkeley, College of Letters & Science, Department of Economics (Deceased) and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 70 (417,753)

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42.

Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird&Apos;S Eye View

Number of pages: 42 Posted: 27 Apr 2000 Last Revised: 15 Aug 2021
John Y. Campbell and Robert J. Shiller
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 202 (191,892)
Citation 64

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43.

Why is Housing Finance Still Stuck in Such a Primitive Stage?

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1934
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 08 Jan 2014
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 194 (198,959)
Citation 6

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Mortgages, securitization, Financial crises, Self-amortizing mortgages, Installment mortgages, Level-payment mortgages, Price-level-adjusted mortgages (PLAMs), Shared appreciation mortgages (SAMs), Housing partnerships, continuous workout mortgages (CWMs), Automatic workout mortgages (AWMs)

44.

The Behavior of Home Buyers in Boom and Post-Boom Markets

Number of pages: 42 Posted: 05 Jul 2004 Last Revised: 04 Jan 2021
Karl E. Case and Robert J. Shiller
Deceased and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 189 (203,754)
Citation 6

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45.

Initial Public Offerings: Investor Behavior and Underpricing

Number of pages: 25 Posted: 22 Oct 2000 Last Revised: 03 Sep 2021
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 188 (204,690)

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46.

Measuring Bubble Expectations and Investor Confidence

Number of pages: 31 Posted: 07 Apr 1999 Last Revised: 27 Aug 2021
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 187 (205,642)

Abstract:

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47.

Mortgage Default Risk and Real Estate Prices: The Use of Index-Based Futures and Options in Real Estate

Number of pages: 36 Posted: 21 Jul 2000 Last Revised: 18 Nov 2021
Karl E. Case, Robert J. Shiller and Allan N. Weiss
Deceased, Yale University - Cowles Foundation and Case Shiller Weiss Inc.
Downloads 186 (206,648)

Abstract:

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48.

Prices of Single Family Homes Since 1970: New Indexes for Four Cities

Number of pages: 53 Posted: 06 Apr 2007 Last Revised: 18 Jul 2010
Karl E. Case and Robert J. Shiller
Deceased and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 172 (221,176)
Citation 17

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Popular Economic Narratives Advancing the Longest U.S. Economic Expansion 2009-2019

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2223
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 11 Mar 2020
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 163 (231,756)
Citation 1

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Economic fluctuations, Narratives, Stories, Great Depression, Secular stagnation, Sustainability, Housing bubble, Strong economy, Save more

Popular Economic Narratives Advancing the Longest U.S. Economic Expansion 2009-2019

Number of pages: 15 Posted: 16 Mar 2020 Last Revised: 20 Nov 2021
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 7 (779,747)

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What Have They Been Thinking? Home Buyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1876
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 20 Sep 2012
Karl E. Case, Robert J. Shiller and Anne Thompson
Deceased, Yale University - Cowles Foundation and McGraw-Hill Construction
Downloads 97 (342,859)
Citation 5

Abstract:

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What Have They Been Thinking? Home Buyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets

Number of pages: 47 Posted: 22 Sep 2012 Last Revised: 11 Oct 2021
Karl E. Case, Robert J. Shiller and Anne Thompson
Deceased, Yale University - Cowles Foundation and McGraw-Hill Construction
Downloads 42 (531,227)
Citation 6

Abstract:

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What Have They Been Thinking? Home Buyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets

Yale International Center for Finance Working Paper No. 12-28
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 18 Sep 2012
Karl E. Case, Robert J. Shiller and Anne Thompson
Deceased, Yale University - Cowles Foundation and McGraw-Hill Construction
Downloads 24 (640,470)

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51.

The Use of Volatility Measures in Assessing Market Efficiency

Number of pages: 18 Posted: 16 Jul 2004 Last Revised: 19 Jul 2021
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 161 (233,817)
Citation 21

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52.
Downloads 159 (236,341)

Home Equity Insurance

Number of pages: 42 Posted: 06 Sep 2000 Last Revised: 13 Sep 2021
Robert J. Shiller and Allan N. Weiss
Yale University - Cowles Foundation and Case Shiller Weiss Inc.
Downloads 159 (236,766)
Citation 4

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Home Equity Insurance

Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics
Posted: 06 Dec 1998
Robert J. Shiller and Allan N. Weiss
Yale University - Cowles Foundation and Case Shiller Weiss Inc.

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53.
Downloads 157 (238,916)

Continuous Workout Mortgages

Number of pages: 41 Posted: 27 Apr 2011
Yale University - Cowles Foundation, University of SurreyLancaster University - Management School, Durham Business School and Lancaster University - Department of Accounting and Finance
Downloads 84 (375,743)

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Continuous Workout Mortgage (CWM), Repayment, Interest-only, House price index, Prepayment intensity, Cap and floor on continuous flow

Continuous Workout Mortgages

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1794
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 23 Apr 2011
Yale University - Cowles Foundation, University of SurreyLancaster University - Management School, Durham Business School and Lancaster University - Department of Accounting and Finance
Downloads 49 (498,107)

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Continuous Workout Mortgage (CWM), Repayment, Interest-only, House price index, Prepayment intensity, Cap and floor on continuous flow

Continuous Workout Mortgages

Number of pages: 41 Posted: 09 May 2011 Last Revised: 21 Jun 2021
Yale University - Cowles Foundation, University of SurreyLancaster University - Management School, Durham Business School and Lancaster University - Department of Accounting and Finance
Downloads 24 (640,470)

Abstract:

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54.

Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market

Number of pages: 31 Posted: 15 Jan 2007 Last Revised: 16 Sep 2021
Karl E. Case and Robert J. Shiller
Deceased and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 157 (238,916)
Citation 30

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55.

Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: Power Versus Frequency of Observation

Number of pages: 14 Posted: 04 Jul 2004 Last Revised: 18 Aug 2021
Robert J. Shiller and Pierre Perron
Yale University - Cowles Foundation and Boston University - Department of Economics
Downloads 133 (272,845)
Citation 1

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Stock Prices and Bond Yields: Can Their Comovements Be Explained in Terms of Present Value Models?

Number of pages: 34 Posted: 13 Nov 2007 Last Revised: 16 Jan 2009
Robert J. Shiller and Andrea Beltratti
Yale University - Cowles Foundation and Bocconi University - Department of Finance
Downloads 86 (370,296)

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Stock Prices and Bond Yields: Can Their Comovements Be Explained in Terms of Present Value Models?

Number of pages: 34 Posted: 27 Jun 2007 Last Revised: 17 Mar 2008
Robert J. Shiller and Andrea Beltratti
Yale University - Cowles Foundation and Bocconi University
Downloads 42 (531,227)
Citation 6

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57.

Interpreting Cointegrated Models

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 04 Feb 2001 Last Revised: 12 Jul 2010
John Y. Campbell and Robert J. Shiller
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 119 (296,142)
Citation 1

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58.

The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes

Number of pages: 23 Posted: 01 Aug 2007 Last Revised: 09 May 2021
Karl E. Case and Robert J. Shiller
Deceased and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 116 (301,499)
Citation 45

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59.

Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models

Number of pages: 39 Posted: 06 Apr 2004 Last Revised: 28 Aug 2021
John Y. Campbell and Robert J. Shiller
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 109 (315,007)
Citation 33

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60.

Rational Expectations and the Dynamic Structure of Macroeconomic Models:A Critical Review

Number of pages: 41 Posted: 28 Jun 2004 Last Revised: 07 Oct 2021
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 108 (316,995)
Citation 4

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61.

Popular Attitudes Towards Markets and Democracy: Russia and United States Compared 25 Years Later

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2030
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 18 Feb 2016 Last Revised: 01 Mar 2016
Maxim Boycko and Robert J. Shiller
Russian Privatization Center and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 94 (347,119)
Citation 1

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free markets, democratic values, fair prices, income inequality, incentives, hostility towards business, Moscow, New York, transition economy

62.

Narratives About Technology-Induced Job Degradation Then and Now

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2168, 2019, Yale ICF Working Paper No. 2019-06
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 27 Feb 2019
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 91 (354,305)
Citation 5

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Labor-saving machines, Artificial intelligence, History of thought, Division of labor, Unemployment, Automation, Robotics

63.
Downloads 89 (359,304)

Why Do People Dislike Inflation?

Number of pages: 77 Posted: 15 Jul 1996 Last Revised: 22 Aug 2021
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 89 (362,370)

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Why Do People Dislike Inflation?

REDUCING INFLATION: MOTIVATION AND STRATEGY, Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer, eds., Chicago: University of Chicago Press for NBER
Posted: 30 Sep 1996
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation

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64.

Speculative Behavior of Institutional Investors

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 04 Jul 2004 Last Revised: 16 May 2021
John Pound and Robert J. Shiller
Independent and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 86 (366,982)

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65.

Investor Behavior in the October 1987 Stock Market Crash: the Case of Japan

Number of pages: 23 Posted: 08 Jun 2004 Last Revised: 03 Nov 2021
Robert J. Shiller, Fumiko Kon-Ya and Yoshiro Tsutsui
Yale University - Cowles Foundation, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and Kyoto Bunkyo University
Downloads 85 (369,674)
Citation 3

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66.

Consumption Correlatedness and Risk Measurement in Economies with Non Trade Assets and Heterogeneous Information

Number of pages: 18 Posted: 18 Aug 2004 Last Revised: 23 May 2021
Sanford J. Grossman and Robert J. Shiller
University of Pennsylvania - Finance Department and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 81 (380,379)
Citation 7

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67.

Speculative Behavior in the Stock Markets: Evidence from the United States and Japan

Number of pages: 22 Posted: 04 Jul 2004 Last Revised: 17 Nov 2021
Robert J. Shiller, Fumiko Kon-Ya and Shunichi Tsutsui
Yale University - Cowles Foundation, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and Arthur Andersen, LLP
Downloads 80 (383,172)

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68.

Comovements in Stock Prices and Comovements in Dividends

Number of pages: 22 Posted: 06 Apr 2004 Last Revised: 13 Oct 2021
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 75 (397,472)
Citation 2

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69.

Consumption, Asset Markets, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

Number of pages: 52 Posted: 24 Jan 2007 Last Revised: 18 Apr 2021
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 74 (400,521)
Citation 2

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70.

The Dividend Ratio Model and Small Sample Bias: a Monte Carlo Study

Number of pages: 15 Posted: 27 Jun 2007 Last Revised: 09 Sep 2021
John Y. Campbell and Robert J. Shiller
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 72 (406,619)
Citation 1

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71.

Survey Evidence on Diffusion of Investment Among Institutional Investors

Number of pages: 28 Posted: 04 Jul 2004 Last Revised: 25 Jul 2021
Robert J. Shiller and John Pound
Yale University - Cowles Foundation and Independent
Downloads 71 (409,732)
Citation 1

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72.

The Life-Cycle Personal Accounts Proposal for Social Security: A Review

Number of pages: 34 Posted: 07 Jun 2005 Last Revised: 18 Nov 2021
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 70 (412,793)

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73.

Moral Hazard in Home Equity Conversion

Number of pages: 42 Posted: 21 Jul 2000 Last Revised: 28 Nov 2021
Robert J. Shiller and Allan N. Weiss
Yale University - Cowles Foundation and Case Shiller Weiss Inc.
Downloads 68 (419,346)
Citation 2

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74.

Estimating the Continuous Time Consumption Based Asset Pricing Model

Number of pages: 43 Posted: 30 Jun 2010 Last Revised: 30 Jun 2021
Sanford J. Grossman, Angelo Melino and Robert J. Shiller
University of Pennsylvania - Finance Department, University of Toronto and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 63 (436,251)
Citation 3

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75.

Continuous Workout Mortgages: Efficient Pricing and Systemic Implications

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2116
Number of pages: 65 Posted: 20 Dec 2017 Last Revised: 16 Mar 2018
Yale University - Cowles Foundation, University of SurreyLancaster University - Management School, Durham Business School and Lancaster University - Department of Accounting and Finance
Downloads 62 (439,759)
Citation 2

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Negative Equity, House Price Index Indexation, Repayment Mortgage, Insurance, Embedded Option to Default, Prepayment Intensity

76.
Downloads 62 (439,759)
Citation 1

The Significance of the Market Portfolio

Number of pages: 29 Posted: 10 Jun 2000 Last Revised: 30 Jul 2021
Stefano Athanasoulis and Robert J. Shiller
University of Notre Dame - Department of Finance and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 62 (445,815)

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The Significance of the Market Portfolio

Posted: 21 Mar 2001
Robert J. Shiller and Stefano Athanasoulis
Yale University - Cowles Foundation and University of Notre Dame - Department of Finance

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77.

Alternative Tests of Rational Expectations Models: The Case of the Term Structure

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 27 Mar 2001 Last Revised: 18 Jul 2010
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 56 (461,658)

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A Scorecard for Indexed Government Debt

Number of pages: 65 Posted: 03 Aug 1998 Last Revised: 09 Oct 2021
John Y. Campbell and Robert J. Shiller
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 56 (468,831)

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A Scorecard for Indexed Government Debt

NBER MACROECONOMICS ANNUAL, Vol 12
Posted: 01 Oct 1996
John Y. Campbell and Robert J. Shiller
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Yale University - Cowles Foundation

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79.

A Simple Account of the Behavior of Long-Term Interest Rates

Number of pages: 31 Posted: 09 Mar 2004 Last Revised: 17 Oct 2021
John Y. Campbell and Robert J. Shiller
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 55 (465,411)
Citation 1

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80.

Indexed Units of Account: Theory and Assessment of Historical Experience

Number of pages: 43 Posted: 21 May 1998 Last Revised: 16 May 2021
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 55 (465,411)

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81.

Conventional Valuation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Number of pages: 45 Posted: 07 Apr 2004 Last Revised: 27 Nov 2021
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 47 (498,200)
Citation 2

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82.

The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts

Number of pages: 19 Posted: 16 Jul 2004 Last Revised: 05 Nov 2021
Ray C. Fair and Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 46 (502,590)
Citation 4

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83.

Measuring Asset Values for Cash Settlement in Derivative Markets: Hedonic Repeated Measures Indices and Perpetual Futures

Number of pages: 44 Posted: 27 Jun 2007 Last Revised: 12 Nov 2021
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 42 (520,651)

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84.

Econometric Modeling as Information Aggregation

Number of pages: 40 Posted: 04 Jan 2007 Last Revised: 09 Aug 2021
Ray C. Fair and Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 41 (525,370)

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85.

Actual and Warranted Relations between Asset Prices

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 28 Dec 2006 Last Revised: 16 Jan 2009
Andrea Beltratti and Robert J. Shiller
Bocconi University - Department of Finance and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 41 (525,370)

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86.

Can the Fed Control Real Interest Rates?

Number of pages: 67 Posted: 15 Feb 2001 Last Revised: 16 Jun 2021
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 40 (530,183)

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87.

Smoothness Priors and Nonlinear Regression

Number of pages: 31 Posted: 24 Jul 2007 Last Revised: 29 Jul 2021
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 38 (540,122)

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88.

World Income Components: Measuring and Exploiting International Risk Sharing Opportunities

Number of pages: 64 Posted: 10 Jun 2000 Last Revised: 05 Jun 2021
Robert J. Shiller and Stefano Athanasoulis
Yale University - Cowles Foundation and University of Notre Dame - Department of Finance
Downloads 34 (560,971)

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89.

Designing Indexed Units of Account

Number of pages: 26 Posted: 16 Aug 1999 Last Revised: 26 Jul 2021
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 32 (571,892)

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90.

Social Security and Institutions for Intergenerational, Intragenerational, and International Risk Sharing

Number of pages: 58 Posted: 24 Sep 1998 Last Revised: 26 Aug 2021
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 32 (571,892)

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Aggregate Income Risks and Hedging Mechanisms

Number of pages: 58 Posted: 28 Dec 2006 Last Revised: 20 Jul 2010
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 30 (598,602)
Citation 4

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Aggregate Income Risks and Hedging Mechanisms

QUARTERLY REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE, Vol 35 No 2, Summer 1995
Posted: 25 Aug 1998
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation

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92.

Ultimate Sources of Aggregate Variability

Number of pages: 24 Posted: 15 Mar 2007 Last Revised: 28 Oct 2021
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 29 (589,259)
Citation 1

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93.

Labor Income Indices Designed for Use in Contracts Promoting Income Risk Management

Number of pages: 46 Posted: 20 Sep 2000 Last Revised: 11 Nov 2021
Robert J. Shiller and Ryan Schneider
Yale University - Cowles Foundation and McKinsey Consulting Group
Downloads 29 (589,259)

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94.

Alternative Prior Representations of Smoothness for Distributed Lag Estimation

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 08 Feb 2001 Last Revised: 07 Oct 2021
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 28 (595,443)

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95.

Tools for Financial Innovation: Neoclassical Versus Behavioral Finance

Financial Review, Vol. 41, No. 1, pp. 1-8, February 2006
Number of pages: 8 Posted: 20 Nov 2006
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 27 (601,671)
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96.

Popular Attitudes Towards Free Markets: The Soviet Union and the United States Compared

Number of pages: 60 Posted: 10 Jul 2007 Last Revised: 10 Jun 2021
Robert J. Shiller, Maxim Boycko and Vladimir Korobov
Yale University - Cowles Foundation, Russian Privatization Center and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 25 (614,780)
Citation 1

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97.

Narratives About Technology-Induced Job Degradations then and Now

Number of pages: 23 Posted: 12 Feb 2019 Last Revised: 11 Apr 2021
Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 17 (671,305)

Abstract:

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98.

Popular Attitudes Towards Markets and Democracy: Russia and United States Compared 25 Years Later

Number of pages: 32 Posted: 01 Mar 2016 Last Revised: 09 Sep 2021
Maxim Boycko and Robert J. Shiller
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 12 (709,570)

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99.

Samuelson's Dictum and the Stock Market

Economic Inquiry, Vol. 43, Issue 2, pp. 221-228, 2005
Number of pages: 8 Posted: 05 Jun 2006
Jeeman Jung and Robert J. Shiller
Sangmyung University - Division of Economics & International Trade and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 11 (717,440)
Citation 1
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100.

The Squam Lake Report: Fixing the Financial System

Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Vol. 22, Issue 3, pp. 8-21, Summer 2010
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 04 Oct 2010
Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business, Institute for International Economics, Harvard University - Department of Economics, Hoover Institution, University of Chicago - Booth School of Business, Stanford University - Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, Booth School of Business, Columbia Business School - Finance and Economics, University of Chicago - Booth School of Business, Harvard Business School - Finance Unit, Yale University - Cowles Foundation, Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business, Harvard University - Department of Economics and Ohio State University (OSU) - Department of Finance
Downloads 7 (749,156)
Citation 4
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101.

A Pricing Framework for Real Estate Derivatives

European Financial Management, Vol. 18, Issue 5, pp. 762-789, 2012
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 20 Oct 2012
Frank J. Fabozzi, Robert J. Shiller and Radu Tunaru
EDHEC Business School, Yale University - Cowles Foundation and University of Sussex
Downloads 4 (772,439)
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derivatives pricing, real estate indices, incomplete markets, market price of risk, serial correlation

102.

Aligning Incentives at Systemically Important Financial Institutions: A Proposal by the Squam Lake Group

Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Vol. 25, Issue 4, pp. 37-40, 2013
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 23 Dec 2013
Brookings Institution, Harvard University - Department of Economics, Hoover Institution, University of Chicago - Booth School of Business, Stanford University - Graduate School of Business, Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business, University of Chicago, Booth School of Business, Columbia Business School - Finance and Economics, Harvard Business School - Finance Unit, Yale University - Cowles Foundation, Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business, Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and Ohio State University (OSU) - Department of Finance
Downloads 0 (818,713)
Citation 1
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103.

Evaluating Real Estate Valuation Systems

Journal of Real Estate Finance And Economics, Vol. 18, No. 2
Posted: 05 Jun 1998
Robert J. Shiller and Allan N. Weiss
Yale University - Cowles Foundation and Case Shiller Weiss Inc.

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104.

Default Risk and Real Estate Prices: The Use of Index- Based Futures and Options in Real Estate

J. OF HOUSING RESEARCH, Vol. 7 No. 2, 1996
Posted: 06 Dec 1996
Karl E. Case and Robert J. Shiller
Deceased and Yale University - Cowles Foundation

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