Refet S. Gürkaynak

Bilkent University - Department of Economics

06533 Ankara

Turkey

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

23

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Top 10,120

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6,236

SSRN CITATIONS
Rank 591

SSRN RANKINGS

Top 591

in Total Papers Citations

1,187

CROSSREF CITATIONS

534

Scholarly Papers (23)

1.

Do Actions Speak Louder than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements

Number of pages: 43 Posted: 19 Dec 2004
Refet S. Gürkaynak, Brian P. Sack and Eric T. Swanson
Bilkent University - Department of Economics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve - Monetary and Financial Market Analysis Section and University of California, Irvine - Department of Economics
Downloads 1,445 (17,153)
Citation 224

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Measuring monetary policy surprises, FOMC statement, factor models, assest prices

Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from Long-Term Bond Yields in the U.S., U.K. And Sweden

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2006-09
Number of pages: 51 Posted: 22 Jul 2007
Refet S. Gürkaynak, Andrew T. Levin and Eric T. Swanson
Bilkent University - Department of Economics, affiliation not provided to SSRN and University of California, Irvine - Department of Economics
Downloads 557 (63,922)
Citation 37

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inflation targeting, inflation compensation, excess sensitivity, forward rates, high-frequency data

Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from Long-Term Bond Yields in the U.S., U.K. And Sweden

Number of pages: 53 Posted: 12 Oct 2006
Refet S. Gürkaynak, Andrew T. Levin and Eric T. Swanson
Bilkent University - Department of Economics, affiliation not provided to SSRN and University of California, Irvine - Department of Economics
Downloads 45 (524,517)
Citation 13
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Inflation targeting

3.

The U.S. Treasury Yield Curve: 1961 to the Present

FEDS Working Paper No. 2006-28
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 25 Jul 2006
Refet S. Gürkaynak, Brian P. Sack and Jonathan H. Wright
Bilkent University - Department of Economics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve - Monetary and Financial Market Analysis Section and Johns Hopkins University - Department of Economics
Downloads 538 (67,503)
Citation 381

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Yield curve, forward rates, on-the-run premium, treasury market

4.
Downloads 536 ( 67,849)
Citation 15

Econometric Tests of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock

Number of pages: 34 Posted: 02 Jan 2005
Refet S. Gürkaynak
Bilkent University - Department of Economics
Downloads 515 (70,548)
Citation 26

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asset price bubbles, econometric bubble detection

Econometric Tests of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock

Journal of Economic Surveys, Vol. 22, Issue 1, pp. 166-186, February 2008
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 31 Jan 2008
Refet S. Gürkaynak
Bilkent University - Department of Economics
Downloads 21 (672,412)
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5.

The TIPS Yield Curve and Inflation Compensation

FEDS Working Paper No. 2008-05
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 15 Jan 2009
Refet S. Gürkaynak, Brian P. Sack and Jonathan H. Wright
Bilkent University - Department of Economics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve - Monetary and Financial Market Analysis Section and Johns Hopkins University - Department of Economics
Downloads 397 (97,029)
Citation 72

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Yield curve, treasury market, inflation compensation, risk premia

Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty and Risk

Number of pages: 46 Posted: 13 Jan 2006
Refet S. Gürkaynak and Justin Wolfers
Bilkent University - Department of Economics and University of Michigan at Ann Arbor - Department of Economics
Downloads 264 (150,266)

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economic derivatives, macroeconomic forecasting, uncertainty, disagreement, prediction markets, density forecasting

Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty, and Risk

NBER Working Paper No. w11929
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 13 Apr 2006 Last Revised: 07 Aug 2021
Refet S. Gürkaynak and Justin Wolfers
Bilkent University - Department of Economics and University of Michigan at Ann Arbor - Department of Economics
Downloads 107 (326,158)

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Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty and Risk

Number of pages: 47 Posted: 03 May 2006
Justin Wolfers and Refet S. Gürkaynak
University of Michigan at Ann Arbor - Department of Economics and Bilkent University - Department of Economics
Downloads 17 (704,186)
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Density forecasts, disagreement, economic derivatives, expectations, forecasting, macroeconomic surveys, prediction markets, surveys, uncertainty

7.

Using Federal Funds Futures Contracts for Monetary Policy Analysis

FEDS Working Paper No. 2005-29
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 05 Oct 2005
Refet S. Gürkaynak
Bilkent University - Department of Economics
Downloads 361 (108,202)
Citation 34

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Measuring monetary policy surprises, timing slope and level surprises, asset prices

8.

The Excess Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models

Number of pages: 44 Posted: 09 Mar 2004
Refet S. Gürkaynak, Brian P. Sack and Eric T. Swanson
Bilkent University - Department of Economics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve - Monetary and Financial Market Analysis Section and University of California, Irvine - Department of Economics
Downloads 335 (117,576)
Citation 178

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Long-term interest rates, excess volatility, inflation expectations

9.

Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2006-04, FEDS Working paper 2002-40
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 25 Nov 2002
Refet S. Gürkaynak, Brian P. Sack and Eric T. Swanson
Bilkent University - Department of Economics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve - Monetary and Financial Market Analysis Section and University of California, Irvine - Department of Economics
Downloads 321 (123,060)
Citation 63

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monetary policy, federal funds rate, financial markets

10.
Downloads 192 (184,069)
Citation 5

Is Optimal Monetary Policy Always Optimal?

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Working Paper No. 15-05
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 05 Aug 2015
Troy Davig and Refet S. Gürkaynak
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and Bilkent University - Department of Economics
Downloads 105 (330,361)
Citation 4

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Is Optimal Monetary Policy Always Optimal?

CFS Working Paper No. 510
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 19 Aug 2015
Troy Davig and Refet S. Gürkaynak
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and Bilkent University - Department of Economics
Downloads 87 (373,404)
Citation 2

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Central Banking, Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, Optimal Policy, Optimal Policy Mix

Is Optimal Monetary Policy Always Optimal?

Number of pages: 42 Posted: 18 Aug 2015
Troy Davig and Refet S. Gürkaynak
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and Bilkent University - Department of Economics
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central banking, fiscal policy, monetary policy, optimal policy, optimal policy mix

11.
Downloads 199 (197,731)
Citation 51

Measuring Euro Area Monetary Policy

ECB Working Paper No. 2281 (2019); ISBN 978-92-899-3543-2
Number of pages: 57 Posted: 20 May 2019
European Central Bank (ECB), affiliation not provided to SSRN, Bilkent University - Department of Economics, European Central Bank (ECB) and University of Pisa - Department of Economics and Management
Downloads 79 (396,057)
Citation 1

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ECB policy surprise, event-study, intraday, persistence, asymmetry

Measuring Euro Area Monetary Policy

CFS Working Paper, No. 624, 2019
Number of pages: 57 Posted: 18 Jun 2019
European Central Bank (ECB), affiliation not provided to SSRN, Bilkent University - Department of Economics, European Central Bank (ECB) and University of Pisa - Department of Economics and Management
Downloads 76 (405,154)
Citation 7

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ECB policy surprise, event-study, intraday, persistence, asymmetry

Measuring Euro Area Monetary Policy

Number of pages: 56 Posted: 10 Jul 2019 Last Revised: 18 Nov 2021
European Central Bank (ECB), affiliation not provided to SSRN, Bilkent University - Department of Economics, European Central Bank (ECB) and University of Pisa - Department of Economics and Management
Downloads 43 (534,383)
Citation 2

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ECB policy surprise, event-study, intraday, persistence, asymmetry

Measuring Euro Area Monetary Policy

Number of pages: 44 Posted: 11 Jun 2019 Last Revised: 04 Oct 2019
European Central Bank (ECB), affiliation not provided to SSRN, Bilkent University - Department of Economics, European Central Bank (ECB) and University of Pisa - Department of Economics and Management
Downloads 1 (849,684)
Citation 44
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Asymmetry, ECB policy surprise, Event-Study, intraday, Persistence

12.

Is Growth Exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer and Weil Seriously

NBER Working Paper No. w8365
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 09 Jul 2001 Last Revised: 11 Nov 2021
Ben S. Bernanke and Refet S. Gürkaynak
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Bilkent University - Department of Economics
Downloads 190 (206,175)
Citation 14

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13.

How Useful are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts?

FEDS Working Paper No. 2011-11
Number of pages: 68 Posted: 18 Apr 2011
Rochelle M. Edge and Refet S. Gürkaynak
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Bilkent University - Department of Economics
Downloads 181 (215,157)
Citation 9

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DSGE Model Forecast, Forecast Comparison, Great Moderation

Stock Market's Assessment of Monetary Policy Transmission: The Cash Flow Effect

CFS Working Paper, No. 628, 2019
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 06 Nov 2019
Refet S. Gürkaynak, Hatice Gökce Karasoy-Can and Sang Seok Lee
Bilkent University - Department of Economics, Central Bank of Turkey and Bilkent University
Downloads 127 (288,043)
Citation 4

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Cash flow effect of monetary policy, investor sophistication, financial frictions, stock pricing

Stock Market's Assessment of Monetary Policy Transmission: The Cash Flow Effect

Number of pages: 55 Posted: 23 Oct 2019
Refet S. Gürkaynak, Hatice Gökce Karasoy-Can and Sang Seok Lee
Bilkent University - Department of Economics, Central Bank of Turkey and Bilkent University
Downloads 35 (577,260)

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cash flow effect of monetary policy, investor sophistication, financial frictions, stock pricing

Stock Market's Assessment of Monetary Policy Transmission: The Cash Flow Effect

Number of pages: 56 Posted: 07 Oct 2019
Refet S. Gürkaynak, Sang Seok Lee and Gokce Karasoy Can
Bilkent University - Department of Economics, Bilkent University and Central Bank of Turkey
Downloads 1 (849,684)
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Cash flow effect of monetary policy, Financial Frictions, Investor sophistication, stock pricing

Convergence and Anchoring of Yield Curves in the Euro Area

ECB Working Paper No. 817
Number of pages: 52 Posted: 19 Oct 2007
European Central Bank (ECB), DIW Berlin, Bilkent University - Department of Economics and University of California, Irvine - Department of Economics
Downloads 98 (346,068)

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bond markets, euro area, EMU, convergence, anchoring, credibility, monetary policy

Convergence and Anchoring of Yield Curves in the Euro Area

FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2007-24
Number of pages: 46 Posted: 02 Nov 2007
European Central Bank (ECB), DIW Berlin, Bilkent University - Department of Economics and University of California, Irvine - Department of Economics
Downloads 54 (484,064)
Citation 25

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bond markets, euro area, EMU; convergence, anchoring, credibility

Convergence and Anchoring of Yield Curves in the Euro Area

Number of pages: 48 Posted: 30 May 2008
European Central Bank (ECB), DIW Berlin, Bilkent University - Department of Economics and University of California, Irvine - Department of Economics
Downloads 6 (798,610)
Citation 7
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anchoring, bond markets, convergence, credibility, EMU, euro area, monetary policy

Monetary Policy Surprises and Exchange Rate Behavior

CFS Working Paper, No. 642, 2020
Number of pages: 55 Posted: 09 Nov 2020
Refet S. Gürkaynak, Hakan Kara, Burçin Kısacıkoğlu and Sang Seok Lee
Bilkent University - Department of Economics, Central Bank of Turkey, Bilkent University - Department of Economics and Bilkent University
Downloads 72 (417,817)

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Exchange rate response to monetary policy, central bank information effect, open economy macro-finance modeling

Monetary Policy Surprises and Exchange Rate Behavior

Number of pages: 54 Posted: 25 Sep 2020
Bilkent University - Department of Economics, Bilkent University - Department of Economics, Bilkent University - Department of Economics and Bilkent University
Downloads 31 (600,925)

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exchange rate response to monetary policy, central bank information effect, open economy macro-finance modeling

Missing Events in Event Studies: Identifying the Effects of Partially-Measured News Surprises

Number of pages: 52 Posted: 31 Oct 2018
Refet S. Gürkaynak, Burçin Kısacıkoğlu and Jonathan H. Wright
Bilkent University - Department of Economics, Bilkent University - Department of Economics and Johns Hopkins University - Department of Economics
Downloads 78 (399,065)

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event study, bondmarkets, high-frequency data, identification

Missing Events in Event Studies: Identifying the Effects of Partially-Measured News Surprises

NBER Working Paper No. w25016
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 17 Sep 2018 Last Revised: 08 Nov 2021
Refet S. Gürkaynak, Burçin Kısacıkoğlu and Jonathan H. Wright
Bilkent University - Department of Economics, Bilkent University - Department of Economics and Johns Hopkins University - Department of Economics
Downloads 20 (680,211)

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Missing Events in Event Studies: Identifying the Effects of Partially-Measured News Surprises

Number of pages: 63 Posted: 17 Sep 2018 Last Revised: 04 Oct 2019
Refet S. Gürkaynak, Burçin Kısacıkoğlu and Jonathan H. Wright
Bilkent University - Department of Economics, Bilkent University - Department of Economics and Johns Hopkins University - Department of Economics
Downloads 0
Citation 4
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Bond Markets, event study, high-frequency data, identification

18.

Macroeconomics and the Term Structure

Number of pages: 68 Posted: 14 Nov 2010
Refet S. Gürkaynak and Jonathan H. Wright
Bilkent University - Department of Economics and Johns Hopkins University - Department of Economics
Downloads 14 (703,094)
Citation 16
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affine models, expectations hypothesis, financial crisis, inflation, interest rates, segmented markets, Term structure

Monetary Policy Surprises and Exchange Rate Behavior

NBER Working Paper No. w27819
Number of pages: 53 Posted: 14 Sep 2020 Last Revised: 05 Jan 2022
Refet S. Gürkaynak, Hakan Kara, Burçin Kısacıkoğlu and Sang Seok Lee
Bilkent University - Department of Economics, Central Bank of Turkey, Bilkent University - Department of Economics and Bilkent University
Downloads 5 (807,220)
Citation 1
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Monetary Policy Surprises and Exchange Rate Behavior

Number of pages: 55 Posted: 22 Sep 2020
Refet S. Gürkaynak, Hakan Kara, Burçin Kısacıkoğlu and Sang Seok Lee
Bilkent University - Department of Economics, Central Bank of Turkey, Bilkent University - Department of Economics and Bilkent University
Downloads 0
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central bank information effect, Exchange rate response to monetary policy, open economy macro-finance modeling

20.

How Useful are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers?

Number of pages: 79 Posted: 27 Dec 2010
Rochelle M. Edge and Refet S. Gürkaynak
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Bilkent University - Department of Economics
Downloads 5 (774,983)
Citation 11
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DSGE model forecast, forecast comparison, Great Moderation

21.

Identification and Inference Using Event Studies

Number of pages: 31 Posted: 19 Mar 2013
Refet S. Gürkaynak and Jonathan H. Wright
Bilkent University - Department of Economics and Johns Hopkins University - Department of Economics
Downloads 4 (782,899)
Citation 11
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Bond Markets, Event Study, High-Frequency Data, Identification, TAF

22.

Do DSGE Models Forecast More Accurately Out-of-Sample than VAR Models?

Number of pages: 63 Posted: 31 Jul 2013
Refet S. Gürkaynak, Burçin Kisacikoglu and Barbara Rossi
Bilkent University - Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University and Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI)
Downloads 1 (812,505)
Citation 3
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Bayesian VAR, DSGE, forecast comparison, forecast optimality, Forecasting, real-time data

23.

Monetary Policy in Turkey after Central Bank Independence

Number of pages: 32 Posted: 28 Oct 2015
Refet S. Gürkaynak, Zeynep Kantur, M. Anıl Taş and Seçil Yıldırım
Bilkent University - Department of Economics, Bilkent University, Bilkent University and Bilkent University
Downloads 0 (830,090)
Citation 2
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CBRT, fiscal policy, monetary policy, Turkey