F. E. Guerra-Pujol

University of Central Florida

Lecturer

Orlando, FL 32816

United States

http://www.priorprobability.com

Pontifical Catholic University of Puerto Rico

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

58

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38,066

SSRN CITATIONS
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Top 23,331

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15

CROSSREF CITATIONS

27

Scholarly Papers (58)

1.

Gödel’s Loophole

Capital University Law Review, vol. 41 (2013), pp. 637-673
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 23 Feb 2012 Last Revised: 18 Dec 2013
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 7,454 (1,080)
Citation 2

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Gödel, Gödelian design defects, constitutional statements, self-amendment, entrenchment, anti-entrenchment clauses

2.

Buy or Bite?

Economics of the Undead, edited by Glen Whitman & James Dow (2014), pp. 123-129
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 29 Sep 2013 Last Revised: 30 Dec 2015
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 5,012 (2,140)

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Vampires, Blood, Black Markets, Legal Failure, Violence

3.

Of Coase and Copyrights: The Law and Economics of Literary Fan Art

NYU Journal of Intellectual Property & Entertainment Law, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 15 Aug 2009 Last Revised: 17 Sep 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 4,464 (2,639)

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copyright, fan art, fair use, Ronald Coase, reciprocal harms

4.

Life, Love, and Law: Confessions of a Cuban-American Law Professor

Revista del Colegio de Abogados y Abogadas de P.R., Forthcoming
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 02 Dec 2009 Last Revised: 21 Jul 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 4,436 (2,674)
Citation 1

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Bayesian Probability, Carlitos del Valle, Coase Theorem, Failure, Game Theory, Kurt Gödel, Law, Legal Theory, Orlando I. Martinez-Garcia, Pontifical Catholic University of Puerto Rico, Prisoner’s Dilemma, Scholarship, Sydjia Robinson, Teaching, Thomas Schelling, University of Central Florida

5.

The Turing Test and the Legal Process

Information & Communications Technology Law, vol. 21, no. 2 (June 2012), pp. 113-126
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 01 Jan 2012 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 2,432 (7,332)

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Turing Test, Turing litigation game, probabilistic verdicts

6.

Lockdowns as Takings

Number of pages: 36 Posted: 03 Apr 2020 Last Revised: 28 Jul 2021
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 1,003 (28,862)

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Epstein, Locke, Nozick, Property Rights, Left Libertarianism, Self-Ownership, Takings

7.

A Bayesian Model of the Litigation Game

European Journal of Legal Studies, vol. 4, no. 2 (Autumn/Winter 2011), pp. 220-240
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 22 Jul 2011 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 763 (42,200)
Citation 4

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Bayes’ theorem, litigation game, random and non-random adjudication, risk-averse and risk-loving moving parties

8.

Trolley Problems

Drake Law Review Discourse, vol. 63 (2014), pp. 101-119
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 08 Sep 2014 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 662 (50,974)

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Auction, Coase Theorem, Free Riding, Thought Experiment, Second-Order Thought Experiment, Trolley Problem, Veil of Ignorance

9.

Visualizing Probabilistic Proof

Washington University Jurisprudence Review, vol. 7, no. 1, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 30 May 2013 Last Revised: 23 Oct 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 640 (53,335)
Citation 5

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Bayes’ Rule, Blue Bus Case, Probabilistic Proof

10.

Chance and Litigation

Boston University Public Interest Law Journal, Vol. 21, No. 1 (Fall 2011), pp. 45-59
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 30 Sep 2011 Last Revised: 10 Sep 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 638 (53,543)
Citation 3

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chance, randomness, coin toss, litigation game, random litigation hypothesis, relative frequency

11.

Clones and the Coase Theorem

Journal of Law & Social Deviance, Vol. 2, pp. 43-91, 2011
Number of pages: 49 Posted: 25 Jan 2012 Last Revised: 31 Jan 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol and Orlando I. Martínez-García
University of Central Florida and Abogados de America Law Offices, LLC
Downloads 546 (65,172)
Citation 1

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clones, Coase theorem, time scarcity, Blade Runner

12.

The Poker-Litigation Game

Resolved: Journal for Alternative Dispute Resolution, vol. 5, no. 1 (2015), pp. 144-164.
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 26 Dec 2012 Last Revised: 26 Jan 2015
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 525 (68,515)
Citation 2

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poker, poker-litigation game, best response, Nash equilibrium, incomplete information, low and high bets, mixed strategy, probabilistic strategy, strategic game, symmetry

13.

Does the Prisoner's Dilemma Refute the Coase Theorem?

John Marshall Law Review, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 02 Jan 2014 Last Revised: 07 Sep 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol and Orlando I. Martínez-García
University of Central Florida and Abogados de America Law Offices, LLC
Downloads 453 (81,977)
Citation 2

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Coase Theorem, Prisoner’s Dilemma, Bargaining, Threats and Promises, Uncertainty, Exponential Discounting, Elasticity

14.

Modelling the Coase Theorem

European Journal of Law and Economics, vol. 5, no. 2 (Autumn/Winter 2012/13), pp.139-157
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 15 Aug 2012 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 420 (89,553)
Citation 2

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Coase Theorem, Coasian games, farmer-rancher model, stray cattle, railway sparks, probabilistic payoffs, transaction costs

15.

Love or Liberty? A Short History of Adam Smith in Love

Econ Journal Watch, Vol. 18, No. 1 (March 2021), pp. 127-155.
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 04 Feb 2021 Last Revised: 01 Apr 2021
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 414 (91,038)

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Abbé Colbert, James Currie, Janet Douglas, Lady Frances, David Hume, Henry Mackenzie, Madame Nicol, Madame Riccoboni, Dugald Stewart

16.

The Best and Worst of Contracts Decisions: An Anthology

45 Fla. St. U. L. Rev. 889-1022 (2018)., California Western School of Law Research Paper No. 19-2, Southwestern Law School Research Paper No. 2019/04, Marquette Law School Legal Studies Paper No. 19-08
Number of pages: 134 Posted: 13 Feb 2019 Last Revised: 09 Aug 2019
Michigan State University College of Law, Gonzaga University School of Law, Arizona State University (ASU) - Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law, Ohio State University - Moritz College of Law, Marquette University - Law School, University of Central Florida, University of Florida Levin College of Law, Southwestern Law School, University of the Pacific - McGeorge School of Law, Barry University School of Law, Touro College - Jacob D. Fuchsberg Law Center, South Texas College of Law Houston, University of Florida Levin College of Law, South Texas College of Law Houston, University of California, Berkeley - School of Law, University of Arizona, James E. Rogers College of Law, Chicago-Kent College of Law - Illinois Institute of Technology, William & Mary Law School, South Texas College of Law Houston and Brigham Young University - J. Reuben Clark Law School
Downloads 386 (99,013)

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Contracts, Contract Law

17.

Teaching Tiger King

Saint Louis University Law Journal (2021)
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 01 Jul 2020 Last Revised: 25 Aug 2021
University of Central Florida, University of Central Florida, University of Central Florida, University of Central Florida and University of Central Florida
Downloads 381 (100,213)

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business law, ethics, legal environment of business, Tiger King

18.

Probabilistic Interpretation, Part II: The Case of the Speluncean Explorers

Number of pages: 13 Posted: 06 Jan 2017
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 376 (101,750)

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Bayesian Probability, Degrees of Belief, Cardinal Voting, Range Voting, Lon Fuller

19.

Breaking Bad Promises

Book Chapter in Better Call Saul and Philosophy, Joshua Heter & Brett Coppenger, editors (forthcoming)
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 14 May 2016 Last Revised: 02 Nov 2021
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 367 (104,508)

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Better Call Saul, illicit agreements, paradox, promises

20.

The Most Senile Justice?

Supreme Court Micro-Symposium, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 06 Jul 2007 Last Revised: 02 Aug 2015
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 357 (107,794)

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judicial decreptitude, U.S. Supreme Court

21.

The Chegg Conspiracy

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 27 Aug 2021
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 345 (112,383)

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Cheating, Chegg, Conspiracy to Commit Wire Fraud, Illicit Markets

22.

Why Don't Juries Try 'Range Voting'?

Criminal Law Bulletin, vol. 51, no. 3, 2015
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 04 Dec 2013 Last Revised: 21 May 2016
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 333 (116,542)
Citation 2

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jury accuracy, juries, range voting, range verdicts, probabilistic verdicts, holdouts, strategic voting, ignorance, incomplete information, diversity prediction theorem

23.

Cowen's Capitalist Manifesto

Number of pages: 12 Posted: 17 Jul 2020 Last Revised: 01 Dec 2020
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 321 (121,193)

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big business, corporations, corruption, CSR, ethics, theory, transaction costs

24.

A Tale of Two Joint Ventures: Jiangsu, China and Havana, Cuba: A Game-Theoretic Analysis of Public-Private Contracts in the Water Sector

Journal of Applied Economy, Symposium Issue on 'Critical Regulation,' vol. 3 (2009), pp. 39-56
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 25 Jun 2009 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 314 (124,058)
Citation 1

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best response, internal-externality, public-private partnership

25.

Legal Liability for Research Fraud

Statistical Journal of the IAOS, Vol. 33, No. 3 (2017), pp. 755-761
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 07 Oct 2015 Last Revised: 15 Sep 2017
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 311 (125,335)
Citation 3

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Research Fraud, Fabrication of Data, Legal Liability

26.

Domestic Violence, Strategic Behavior, and Ideological Rent-Seeking

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 12 Jul 2006 Last Revised: 05 Mar 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 307 (127,085)
Citation 2

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domestic violence, rent-seeking, strategic behavior

27.

Finding Santiago

Number of pages: 17 Posted: 26 Feb 2015 Last Revised: 03 Jun 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 265 (148,131)
Citation 1

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Bayes’ Rule, Hemingway, Santiago, Subjective Probability, The Old Man and the Sea

28.

Coase and the Constitution: A New Approach to Federalism

Richmond Journal of Law and Public Interest, Vol. 14, No. 3, 2011
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 11 Mar 2010 Last Revised: 24 Nov 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 263 (149,272)
Citation 2

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Auctions, Federalism, Property Rights, Ronald Coase, Secondary Markets

29.

Gödel's Interbellum

Number of pages: 46 Posted: 01 Sep 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 234 (167,441)

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Anti-Constitutional Moments, Interbellum Europe, Kurt Gödel, Gödel’s Loophole, Constitutional Dictatorship

30.

Bayesian Manipulation of Litigation Outcomes

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 28 Apr 2014 Last Revised: 17 Jun 2016
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 219 (178,373)
Citation 1

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Bayes' rule, common prior assumption, sender, signals, receiver, truth

31.

Probabilistic Interpretation

University of LaVerne Law Review, Vol. 38, No. 1 (2016), pp. 101-121
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 13 Jun 2016 Last Revised: 28 Nov 2016
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 211 (184,663)
Citation 1

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Legal Interpretation, Best-Choice Secretary Problem

32.

The Parable of the Prisoners

Number of pages: 39 Posted: 20 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 22 Jun 2013
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 209 (186,271)
Citation 1

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Prisoner’s Dilemma, Altruist’s Dilemma, game theory, paradigm, Melvin Dresher, Merrill Flood, John Nash, A.W. Tucker

33.

Betting on Conspiracy Theories: Kurt Godel and ‘The Leibniz Cover-Up’

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 04 Aug 2021
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 203 (191,428)

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Betting Markets, Conspiracy Theories, Kurt Godel,

34.

Guaranteed Income: Chronicle of a Political Death Foretold

Chapman Law Review, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 05 Feb 2020 Last Revised: 02 Mar 2020
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 182 (211,089)

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Guaranteed income, negative income tax, universal basic income, Milton Friedman, Rose Friedman, Congress

35.

Tom Brady’s Footballs: Modelling the Optimal Level of Rule Evasion

Number of pages: 21 Posted: 29 Jan 2012 Last Revised: 22 Jul 2020
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 171 (222,678)

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models of evasion and compliance

36.

Kant on Evidence: A Hypothetical Reply to Kerr

Green Bag 2d. (Summer 2019)
Number of pages: 1 Posted: 20 Jun 2015 Last Revised: 18 Sep 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 166 (228,327)
Citation 1

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Kant, evidence, thought experiments

37.

Puerto Rico as a Critical Locality: Is a Post-Colonial Puerto Rico Possible? A Game-Theoretic Analysis of the Impasse over Puerto Rico's Status

St Thomas Law Review, vol. 20, no. 3 (2008), pp. 561-571
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 19 May 2008 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 156 (240,625)

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Truel, Endowment Effect, Path Dependence

38.

So Long Suckers: Bargaining and Betrayal in Breaking Bad

Journal of Strategic Contracting and Negotiation, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 15 Posted: 02 Feb 2016 Last Revised: 24 Dec 2018
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 155 (241,841)

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Bargaining game, Breaking Bad (TV show), negotiation, So Long Sucker (game)

39.

The Futility of the Libertarian Fetish for Freedom: Milton Friedman’s Capitalism and Freedom Revisited

Journal of Law and Social Deviance, vol. 4 (2012), pp. 1-39
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 26 Dec 2012 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 151 (247,167)

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coercion, Milton Friedman, capitalism and freedom

40.

The Paradox of Adjudication

Number of pages: 18 Posted: 06 Jun 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 150 (248,498)

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adjudication, costly decision-making, infinite regress, research, deliberation, time constraints, Hand formula

41.

The Evolutionary Path of the Law

Indonesian Journal of International Law, vol. 1, no. 3 (July 2014), Forthcoming
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 04 Jun 2014 Last Revised: 22 Jul 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 139 (264,099)
Citation 1

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Altruism, Cooperation, Prisoner's Dilemma, Law, Science

42.

Judge Hercules or Judge Bayes? (Newcomb's Paradox and the Prediction Theory of Law)

Number of pages: 11 Posted: 12 Jan 2015 Last Revised: 13 Jul 2016
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 134 (271,819)

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Hard Cases, Newcomb’s Paradox, Prediction Theory of Law

43.

El Caso de Puerto Rico: A Game-Theoretic Analysis of the Puerto Rican Status Debate

American University Journal of Gender, Social Policy & the Law, Vol. 18, No. 3, 2010
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 02 Dec 2009 Last Revised: 23 Jun 2016
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 129 (279,606)
Citation 2

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costly war of attrition, evolutionarily stable strategies, hawk-dove game

44.

A Beautiful Life: Some Lessons for Legal Scholars

Mississippi College School of Law Research Paper
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 22 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 06 Mar 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 123 (289,715)

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Albert O. Hirschman, emotions, enforcement, evasion

45.

Deconstructing Darwin

Griffith Law Review (Australia), vol. 14, no. 2 (2005), pp. 247-267
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 15 Aug 2009 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 120 (294,947)

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Darwin, Tierra del Fuego

46.

The Case for Bayesian Judges: Putting Posner and Vermeule into Practice

Journal of Legal Metrics, Vol. 6, No. 1 (2019), pp. 13-20
Number of pages: 8 Posted: 09 Jan 2018 Last Revised: 24 Dec 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 118 (298,465)

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Bayesian voting, degrees of belief, confidence levels, judicial voting, appellate judges

47.

The Problem with Precedent

Vienna Journal on International Constitutional Law, Vol. 12, no. 4 (Forthcoming)
Number of pages: 8 Posted: 24 Jun 2018 Last Revised: 13 Jul 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 110 (313,634)

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precedent, stare decisis, circular reasoning, Bayesian judging

48.

Antiblue: A Rational & Simple System of Legal Citation

Number of pages: 24 Posted: 05 Jan 2016 Last Revised: 23 Nov 2020
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 107 (319,636)
Citation 1

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Parenthetical Citation, Bibliography

49.

Breaking the (Puerto Rican Condorcet) Cycle

Number of pages: 19 Posted: 10 Aug 2016 Last Revised: 17 Aug 2021
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 99 (336,504)

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Condorcet cycle, Bayesian voting, Puerto Rico

50.

Law Is a Battlefield: The Colonel Blotto Litigation Game

Number of pages: 17 Posted: 01 Jul 2016 Last Revised: 13 Dec 2016
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 92 (352,595)

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Colonel Blotto, all-pay auction, strategy

51.

Subjective Probability and Legal Proof: A Ramsian Reply to Allen and Pardo

Number of pages: 17 Posted: 11 Jun 2018 Last Revised: 03 Aug 2020
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 89 (359,983)

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Legal Proof, Relative Plausibility, Subjective Probability, Frank Ramsey, Ramsian Verdicts

52.

Excerpts from 'The Best and Worst of Contracts Decisions: An Anthology' (Val Ricks, Editor) - Part 1: A Bayesian Defense of the Rule in Hadley v. Baxendale - Part 2: Sherwood v. Walker: Replevin for Rose Redux

Florida State University Law Review, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 18 Sep 2017 Last Revised: 21 May 2018
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 81 (381,128)

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Hadley v. Baxendale, Sherwood v. Walker, mistake, probability, remedies

53.

Domestic Constitutional Violence

UA Little Rock Law Review, Vol. 41 (2019), pp. 211-232.
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 24 Jan 2019 Last Revised: 28 May 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 80 (383,937)

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Cooper v. Aaron, Little Rock Crisis, Necessity

54.

Weyl Versus Ramsey: A Bayesian Voting Primer

Number of pages: 19 Posted: 03 Sep 2020
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 73 (404,319)

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Frank Ramsey, degrees of belief, subjective probability, quadratic voting, Ramsian voting

55.

Exit, Voice, and Boilerplate

Number of pages: 5 Posted: 25 Jun 2018
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 52 (478,055)

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contracts, markets, morality, boilerplate

56.

Bitcoin, the Commerce Clause, and Bayesian Stare Decisis

Chapman Law Review, Vol. 22, No. 1 (2019), pp. 143-160
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 24 May 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 50 (486,235)
Citation 1

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Bayesian Voting, Bitcoin, South Dakota v. Wayfair, Stare Decisis

57.

(Book Review) Frank Ramsey’s Contributions to Probability Theory and Legal Theory

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 24 Apr 2020 Last Revised: 14 Jul 2020
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 42 (521,590)

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degrees of belief, litigation, subjective probability, Thomas Bayes, Cheryl Misak, Frank Ramsey

58.

Life, Love, and Law: An Epistolary Exchange

University of Puerto Rico Law Review (Revista Juridica de la Universidad de Puerto Rico), Vol. 80, No. 4, pp. 995-1003, 2011
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 30 Sep 2011 Last Revised: 13 Jul 2020
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 33 (567,443)

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David Hume, Social Contract, Arms Races

Other Papers (2)

Total Downloads: 1,117
1.

Hacking Harvard: Law, Ethics, and the Dawn of the Facebook Era

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 15 Jan 2016 Last Revised: 23 Jan 2018
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 1,057

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Business law, ethics, legal environment

2.

Research Fraud as Tort

Science, Vol. 349, No. 6255 (25 Sept. 2015), pp. 1459-1460
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 25 Sep 2015
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 60

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intentional torts, fraudulent misrepresentation, research fraud