Kenneth C. Lichtendahl

University of Virginia - Darden School of Business

Assistant Professor

P.O. Box 6550

Charlottesville, VA 22906-6550

United States

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

31

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4,489

SSRN CITATIONS
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Top 24,187

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38

CROSSREF CITATIONS

2

Scholarly Papers (31)

1.

Probability Forecasts and Their Combination: A Research Perspective

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 10 Oct 2018 Last Revised: 29 Mar 2019
Duke University - Fuqua School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS), University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business
Downloads 528 (68,039)
Citation 6

Abstract:

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2.

Airbus and Boeing: Superjumbo Decisions

Number of pages: 7 Posted: 23 Jun 2009
Samuel E. Bodily and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 463 (79,855)
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subjective probability, decision trees, simulation, real options, game theory

3.

The Wisdom of Competitive Crowds

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 1926330
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 13 Sep 2011 Last Revised: 23 Mar 2015
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS) and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 405 (93,451)
Citation 7

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forecasting competitions, strategic forecasting, expert opinion, averaging opinions, combining forecasts.

4.

Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 2474438
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 03 Aug 2014 Last Revised: 19 Aug 2015
University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS), Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 372 (103,025)
Citation 7

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wisdom of crowds; base-rate neglect; linear opinion pool; trimmed opinion pool; hit rate; calibration; random forest.

5.

Incentives in a Stage-Gate Process

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 1738531
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 12 Jan 2011 Last Revised: 10 May 2013
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS)
Downloads 364 (105,525)
Citation 1

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Innovation; New Product Development; Principal-Agent Analysis; Search; Complex Performance Landscapes

6.

Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 2066806
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 25 May 2012 Last Revised: 29 Sep 2012
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS) and Duke University - Fuqua School of Business
Downloads 358 (107,500)
Citation 2

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probability forecasts, quantile forecasts, expert combination, linear opinion pooling

7.

An Exponential Smoothing Model with a Life Cycle Trend

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 2805244
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 08 Jul 2016 Last Revised: 04 Sep 2019
University College London - School of Management, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS)
Downloads 339 (114,271)

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demand forecasting; capacity planning; inventory management; new product adoption; skewed diffusions; quantile forecasts

8.

Probability Elicitation, Scoring Rules, and Competition Among Forecasters

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 07-05
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 05 Feb 2007
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Robert L. Winkler
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and Duke University - Fuqua School of Business
Downloads 222 (176,155)
Citation 4

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probability elicitation; scoring rules; forecasting competitions; probability forecasts; truthful revelation; overconfidence bias

9.

Carvana: IsBadBuy?

Number of pages: 1 Posted: 13 Sep 2020
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 215 (181,492)

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Carvana, automotive industry, competition, prediction, used cars, online, distance learning, Tableau, data science, visual analytics, programming, coding

10.

Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem

Management Science, Forthcoming, Darden Business School Working Paper No. 2175093
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 15 Nov 2012 Last Revised: 13 Jul 2013
Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS) and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 194 (199,468)
Citation 5

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trimming, probability forecasts, expert combination, linear opinion pool, underconfidence, overconfidence, scoring rules, wisdom of crowds, diversity

11.

Dueling contests and platform's coordinating role

University of California, San Diego, Rady School of Management Working Paper No 3485193, Darden Business School Working Paper No. 3485193
Number of pages: 55 Posted: 15 Nov 2019 Last Revised: 03 Dec 2021
Konstantinos I. Stouras, Sanjiv Erat and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
UCD, Michael Smurfit Graduate Business School, University of California, San Diego (UCSD) - Rady School of Management and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 162 (233,150)
Citation 1

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crowdsourcing; nudges; incentives; multiple contests; endogenous participation

12.

Perceived Repeated Risk and the Allais Paradox

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 1924547
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 09 Sep 2011
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS)
Downloads 144 (256,892)

Abstract:

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expected utility theory, prospect theory, common ratio effect, nonlinear sensitivity to probabilities

13.

Snackchips in China

Number of pages: 6 Posted: 23 Jun 2009
Samuel E. Bodily, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Robert T. Clemen
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and Duke University
Downloads 144 (256,892)
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decision analysis, simulation, real options, and game theory

14.

Kelly Solar

Number of pages: 3 Posted: 07 Apr 2010
Samuel E. Bodily, Marc L. Lipson and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 118 (298,580)
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debt, agency cost, bargaining, renegotiation, entrepreneur, financial claims, debt financing, debt overhang

15.

Extremizing and Anti-Extremizing in Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts

Number of pages: 29 Posted: 27 Mar 2017 Last Revised: 24 Apr 2021
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS), Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business and Duke University - Fuqua School of Business
Downloads 114 (306,003)
Citation 1

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Forecast aggregation; linear opinion pool; generalized linear model; extremizing and anti-extremizing; bracketing; probit ensemble

16.

Quantile Evaluation, Sensitivity to Bracketing, and Sharing Business Payoffs

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 09 Jul 2015 Last Revised: 07 Nov 2016
University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS), University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business and Duke University - Fuqua School of Business
Downloads 108 (317,706)
Citation 5

Abstract:

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quantile forecasts; forecast evaluation, probability elicitation, proper scoring rules, expert aggregation, expert combination

17.

Random Quantiles Associated with the Dirichlet Process

Number of pages: 19 Posted: 25 Oct 2007
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 75 (398,414)

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Bayesian nonparametrics, Quantile process, Quantile regression, Combination of forecasts

18.

The Promise of Prediction Contests

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 2317477
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 30 Aug 2013
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS) and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 52 (478,244)
Citation 2

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Forecast Aggregation, Forecasting Contests, Picking Contests, Public Knowledge Bias, Wisdom of Crowds

19.

Eliciting and Evaluating Expert Forecasts

Number of pages: 9 Posted: 05 Apr 2010
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 47 (499,259)
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probability forecasts, quantiles, value-at-risk, scoring rules

20.

Tweets, Retweets, and Entrepreneurship

Number of pages: 6 Posted: 12 Sep 2020
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS), Independent and Independent
Downloads 30 (584,505)

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entrepreneurship, social media, marketing, Twitter, analytics, natural language processing

21.

Yahoo's Acquisition of Tumblr

Number of pages: 9 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Andrew Kritzer
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 10 (726,651)
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R file, forecasting, growth forecasting, time series, time series analysis, revenue forecasting, exponential smoothing, smoothing models, Yahoo, Yahoo!, Tumblr, Marissa Mayer, Facebook

22.

Segmenting Clinton and Obama Voters

Number of pages: 5 Posted: 02 Jun 2017 Last Revised: 10 Nov 2021
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Rohit Gupta
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 6 (758,418)
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forecasting, data visualization, supervised learning, stepwise regression, regression tree, predictive analytics

23.

Fannie Mae's Data Dynamics

Number of pages: 12 Posted: 19 Feb 2019 Last Revised: 07 Dec 2021
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS) and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 5 (766,079)
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code, visualize data, test hypotheses, validate model results, Brier score, variable importance plot, AI

24.

A/B Testing at Vungle

Number of pages: 7 Posted: 18 Jul 2018
University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS), University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University College London
Downloads 5 (766,079)
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hypothesis testing, A/B test, horse race, paired t-test, parallel run, algorithm, eRPM, conversion rate

25.

Opening Casino Jack

Number of pages: 3 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS), University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 2 (791,082)
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advertising, distribution

26.

Surveying Professional Forecasters

Number of pages: 6 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS) and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 2 (791,082)
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APE, absolute percentage error, nominal gdp, random judge

27.

MovieLens: Filtering on Others' Reactions

Number of pages: 6 Posted: 22 Oct 2021
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Benjamin Boatright and Paul Holtz
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 1 (802,639)
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recommendation system, relational database, collaborative filtering, machine learning, SQL

28.

Ocean's Dilemma

Number of pages: 6 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS), University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 1 (802,639)
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NPV, matrix

29.

Scoring Expert Forecasts

Number of pages: 5 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS)
Downloads 1 (802,639)
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log scoring rule, Brier scoring rule, fractile, quantile, percentile, probability mass function, probability density function

30.

Pricemax

Number of pages: 10 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS)
Downloads 1 (802,639)
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forecasting, guidance, ranges, distributions, EPS

31.

Ballis's Benchmark (a)

Number of pages: 9 Posted: 30 May 2017
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS)
Downloads 1 (802,639)
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persistence hot hand benchmark fund data filtering regression