Yael Grushka-Cockayne

Harvard University - Business School (HBS)

Soldiers Field Road

Morgan 270C

Boston, MA 02163

United States

http://https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/profile.aspx?facId=263650

University of Virginia - Darden School of Business

P.O. Box 6550

Charlottesville, VA 22906-6550

United States

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

46

DOWNLOADS
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4,530

SSRN CITATIONS
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SSRN RANKINGS

Top 25,587

in Total Papers Citations

32

CROSSREF CITATIONS

5

Scholarly Papers (46)

1.

Forecasting Airport Transfer Passenger Flow Using Real-Time Data and Machine Learning

Number of pages: 42 Posted: 10 Oct 2018 Last Revised: 16 Jun 2020
Xiaojia Guo, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Bert De Reyck
University College London - School of Management, University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS) and UCL School of Management
Downloads 549 (64,640)
Citation 1

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quantile forecasts; regression tree; copula; passenger flow management; data-driven operations

2.

Probability Forecasts and Their Combination: A Research Perspective

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 10 Oct 2018 Last Revised: 29 Mar 2019
Robert L. Winkler, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Victor Richmond Jose
Duke University - Fuqua School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS), University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business
Downloads 527 (68,050)
Citation 6

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3.

The Wisdom of Competitive Crowds

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 1926330
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 13 Sep 2011 Last Revised: 23 Mar 2015
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Phillip E. Pfeifer
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS) and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 405 (93,071)
Citation 7

Abstract:

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forecasting competitions, strategic forecasting, expert opinion, averaging opinions, combining forecasts.

4.

Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 2474438
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 03 Aug 2014 Last Revised: 19 Aug 2015
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Victor Richmond Jose and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS), Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 372 (102,598)
Citation 7

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wisdom of crowds; base-rate neglect; linear opinion pool; trimmed opinion pool; hit rate; calibration; random forest.

5.

Incentives in a Stage-Gate Process

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 1738531
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 12 Jan 2011 Last Revised: 10 May 2013
Raul O. Chao, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS)
Downloads 364 (105,136)
Citation 1

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Innovation; New Product Development; Principal-Agent Analysis; Search; Complex Performance Landscapes

6.

Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 2066806
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 25 May 2012 Last Revised: 29 Sep 2012
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Robert L. Winkler
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS) and Duke University - Fuqua School of Business
Downloads 358 (107,083)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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probability forecasts, quantile forecasts, expert combination, linear opinion pooling

7.

The Similarity Heuristic

Number of pages: 43 Posted: 16 Nov 2007 Last Revised: 29 Sep 2012
Daniel Read, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University of Warwick - Warwick Business School and University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS)
Downloads 348 (110,502)

Abstract:

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heuristics and biases, fast-and-frugal heuristics, similarity, representative design, base-rate neglect, Bayesian inference

8.

An Exponential Smoothing Model with a Life Cycle Trend

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 2805244
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 08 Jul 2016 Last Revised: 04 Sep 2019
Xiaojia Guo, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University College London - School of Management, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS)
Downloads 337 (114,584)

Abstract:

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demand forecasting; capacity planning; inventory management; new product adoption; skewed diffusions; quantile forecasts

9.

Managerial Mental Accounting and Downstream Project Decisions

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 3265724
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 04 Nov 2018 Last Revised: 01 Sep 2021
Manel Baucells, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Woonam Hwang
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS) and University of Utah - David Eccles School of Business
Downloads 210 (184,856)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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project management, behavioral operations, mental accounting, earned value analysis

10.

Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem

Management Science, Forthcoming, Darden Business School Working Paper No. 2175093
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 15 Nov 2012 Last Revised: 13 Jul 2013
Victor Richmond Jose, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS) and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 193 (199,660)
Citation 5

Abstract:

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trimming, probability forecasts, expert combination, linear opinion pool, underconfidence, overconfidence, scoring rules, wisdom of crowds, diversity

11.

Perceived Repeated Risk and the Allais Paradox

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 1924547
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 09 Sep 2011
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS)
Downloads 144 (256,016)

Abstract:

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expected utility theory, prospect theory, common ratio effect, nonlinear sensitivity to probabilities

12.

Combining Prediction Intervals in the M4 Competition

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 14 Feb 2019 Last Revised: 10 Apr 2019
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Victor Richmond Jose
University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS) and Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business
Downloads 114 (306,819)

Abstract:

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hit rates, interval combination methods, calibration, mean scaled interval score, interior trimming, overconfidence

13.

Extremizing and Anti-Extremizing in Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts

Number of pages: 29 Posted: 27 Mar 2017 Last Revised: 24 Apr 2021
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Victor Richmond Jose and Robert L. Winkler
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS), Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business and Duke University - Fuqua School of Business
Downloads 113 (306,819)
Citation 1

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Forecast aggregation; linear opinion pool; generalized linear model; extremizing and anti-extremizing; bracketing; probit ensemble

14.

Fast and Frugal Time Series Forecasting

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 26 Mar 2021
Fotios Petropoulos, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
School of Management, University of Bath, UK and University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS)
Downloads 108 (316,615)

Abstract:

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exponential smoothing, ARIMA, big data, suboptimality, computational cost, retail, forecasting, forecast-value-added

15.

Quantile Evaluation, Sensitivity to Bracketing, and Sharing Business Payoffs

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 09 Jul 2015 Last Revised: 07 Nov 2016
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Victor Richmond Jose and Robert L. Winkler
University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS), University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business and Duke University - Fuqua School of Business
Downloads 107 (320,666)
Citation 5

Abstract:

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quantile forecasts; forecast evaluation, probability elicitation, proper scoring rules, expert aggregation, expert combination

16.

London Heathrow Airport Uses Real-Time Analytics for Improving Operations

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 30 Jun 2020
Xiaojia Guo, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Bert De Reyck
University College London - School of Management, University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS) and UCL School of Management
Downloads 81 (379,963)

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17.

A Heuristic for Combining Correlated Experts When There is Little Data

Number of pages: 39 Posted: 13 Oct 2020 Last Revised: 19 Jun 2021
David Soule, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Jason R.W. Merrick
University of Richmond, University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS) and Virginia Commonwealth University - Statistical Sciences and Operations Research
Downloads 59 (449,966)
Citation 2

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18.

The Promise of Prediction Contests

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 2317477
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 30 Aug 2013
Phillip E. Pfeifer, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS) and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 51 (480,714)
Citation 2

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Forecast Aggregation, Forecasting Contests, Picking Contests, Public Knowledge Bias, Wisdom of Crowds

19.

Tweets, Retweets, and Entrepreneurship

Number of pages: 6 Posted: 12 Sep 2020
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Sasha Friedman and John Greenfield
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS), Independent and Independent
Downloads 30 (582,664)

Abstract:

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entrepreneurship, social media, marketing, Twitter, analytics, natural language processing

20.

Getting Rich on Crypto

Number of pages: 9 Posted: 19 Jun 2018 Last Revised: 10 Nov 2021
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Charles Goelz, Davis Willingham and Shawn Le
University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS), University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 8 (740,499)
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cryptocurrency, bitcoin, portfolio management, private wealth management, portfolio returns, portfolio risk analysis, portfolio diversification, asset correlation, portfolio theory, gold

21.

Fannie Mae&Apos;S Data Dynamics

Number of pages: 9 Posted: 19 Feb 2019 Last Revised: 10 Nov 2021
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Elena Loutskina, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Gerry Yemen
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS) and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 5 (764,104)
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Abstract:

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code, visualize data, test hypotheses, validate model results, Brier score, variable importance plot, AI

22.

A/B Testing at Vungle

Number of pages: 7 Posted: 18 Jul 2018
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Bert De Reyck and Ioannis Fragkos
University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS), University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University College London
Downloads 5 (764,104)
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hypothesis testing, A/B test, horse race, paired t-test, parallel run, algorithm, eRPM, conversion rate

23.

Teegolf Company: To Exit or Not to Exit—Team 1

Number of pages: 9 Posted: 23 Apr 2018 Last Revised: 10 Nov 2021
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Nick Molloy
University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS) and University of Virginia
Downloads 5 (764,104)
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leveraged buyout analysis, discounted cash flow, negotiation

24.

Keep it Cool

Number of pages: 8 Posted: 19 Jun 2018 Last Revised: 10 Nov 2021
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Aneesh Saxena and Nate McFarland
University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS), University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 3 (779,756)
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A/B testing, hypothesis testing, social media, marketing, cost per click, advertising, ad campaign, interest group, entrepreneurship, energy efficiency, Facebook, Messenger, chatbot, consumer engagement, sustainable energy

25.

Project Management and Transparency for Capital Projects

Number of pages: 15 Posted: 19 Jun 2018
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Rachel McKlindon and Jess Cornell
University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS), University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 3 (779,756)
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project management, capital projects, accountability

26.

Digiplex: Future-Ready Data Centers

Number of pages: 15 Posted: 10 Oct 2017
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Gerry Yemen
University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS) and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 3 (779,756)
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network analysis, large scale projects, tasks, dependencies, durations, budget, risk register, actionable recommendations, international

27.

Lumi Juice: Concept to Store

Number of pages: 5 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Hillary Nicole Lewis
University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS) and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 3 (779,756)
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project management, entrepreneurship, operations management, interdependent variables, product launch, managing small business

28.

Agile Development

Number of pages: 9 Posted: 28 Jan 2021 Last Revised: 10 Nov 2021
Alex Cowan, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS)
Downloads 2 (789,143)
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agile, scrum, Lean Startup, DevOps, continuous delivery, requirements, design sprints, technology and innovation management, IT, corporate innovation, new product development, entrepreneurship

29.

Roast, Grind, Brew, Kickstart

Number of pages: 12 Posted: 27 Aug 2018
Alexander Koes, Mathew Reiss, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, Independent and University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS)
Downloads 2 (789,143)
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entrepreneurship, marketing, new product launch, regression analysis, data science, Python, Excel, hypothesis testing

30.

Strategy at Yuhisai Koudoukan: Reading the Tea Leaves

Number of pages: 14 Posted: 18 Jul 2018
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Thanh-Trang Hoang-Le, Will Baber and Gerry Yemen
University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS), Kyoto University, Kyoto University and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 2 (789,143)
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Japan, teahouse, tea ceremony, tangible assets, intangible assets, external positioning, value chain, competitive environment, processes, people, systems, alignment

31.

Teegolf Company: To Exit or Not to Exit—Team 2

Number of pages: 8 Posted: 23 Apr 2018 Last Revised: 10 Nov 2021
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Nick Molloy
University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS) and University of Virginia
Downloads 2 (789,143)
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leveraged buyout analysis, discounted cash flow, negotiation

32.

UnbeLEAFable Snacks

Number of pages: 11 Posted: 16 Jan 2018
Nick King, John White, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Ronald T. Wilcox
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS) and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 2 (789,143)
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entrepreneur, new business, venture, startup, career path, premium segment, luxury, high-end, mechanical turk, survey, focus group, snack, gummy, garden gummies, natural food, health food, pricing, conjoint analysis, customer segmentation

33.

New York City Department of Parks and Recreation

Number of pages: 3 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS)
Downloads 2 (789,143)
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Project management, capital projects, planning fallacy

34.

Opening Casino Jack

Number of pages: 3 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Andrew Green and Temple Fennell
University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS), University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 2 (789,143)
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advertising, distribution

35.

Surveying Professional Forecasters

Number of pages: 6 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS) and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 2 (789,143)
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APE, absolute percentage error, nominal gdp, random judge

36.

Toward a Single European Sky

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 01 Jun 2017
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Bert De Reyck
University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS) and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 2 (789,143)
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multi-criteria decision analysis, multi-stakeholders, optimization

37.

Set in Stone

Number of pages: 8 Posted: 05 Jun 2017
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Pascale Crama, Elizabeth Tang and Arup Banerjee
University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS), Singapore Management University - Lee Kong Chian School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 1 (800,684)
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website design, process improvement, sales process

38.

Healthcare.Gov (a)

Number of pages: 13 Posted: 02 Jun 2017 Last Revised: 10 Nov 2021
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Brian Ward
University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS) and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 1 (800,684)
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health care, government, insurance, marketplace, exchange, law, bill, Affordable Care Act, ACA, medical, Health and Human Services, HHS, Medicare, Medicaid, Obama, Obamacare, federal

39.

Sunray's Photovoltaic Power Plant

Number of pages: 9 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Georgios Mexis
University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS) and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 1 (800,684)
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Project planning, uncertain duration, risk analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, correlation, construction

40.

Ocean's Dilemma

Number of pages: 6 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Rohit Gupta
University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS), University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 1 (800,684)
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NPV, matrix

41.

Scoring Expert Forecasts

Number of pages: 5 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS)
Downloads 1 (800,684)
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log scoring rule, Brier scoring rule, fractile, quantile, percentile, probability mass function, probability density function

42.

Pricemax

Number of pages: 10 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS)
Downloads 1 (800,684)
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forecasting, guidance, ranges, distributions, EPS

43.

Ballis's Benchmark (a)

Number of pages: 9 Posted: 30 May 2017
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS)
Downloads 1 (800,684)
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persistence hot hand benchmark fund data filtering regression

44.

Saving Griffin

Number of pages: 15 Posted: 26 Mar 2021 Last Revised: 10 Nov 2021
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Alex Cowan and Jason Turse
University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS), University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and Amazon
Downloads 0 (818,047)
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digital transformation, product management, corporate innovation, federal IT, agile, analytics, program management, Lean Startup, IT, design thinking, DevOps, continuous delivery, microservices, requirements, design sprints, technology and innovation management, new product development

45.

Flex Technology

Number of pages: 10 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Robert L. Carraway and Travis Sorenson
University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS), University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
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financial assessment, property rights, commercial value, disruptive technology, new product, venture capital

46.

Fair Play at Chisholm University

Number of pages: 10 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Jared D. Harris, Jenny Mead, Meera Shankar and John Adams
University of Virginia - Darden School of BusinessHarvard University - Business School (HBS), University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
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optimization, stakeholder framework, decision, linear and integer programming, role-play, Solver, qualitative and quantitative