A Maxtent Model for Macroscenario Analysis

Advances in Complex Systems, Vol. 11, No. 5, pp. 719-744, 2008

Posted: 8 Dec 2009

See all articles by Simone Landini

Simone Landini

IRES Piemonte, Socio-Economic Research Institute of Piedmont

Corrado Di Guilmi

Universita' Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona - Department of Economics

Marco Gallegati

Polytechnic University of Marche - Faculty of Economics

Date Written: October 2008

Abstract

In this paper, starting from Jaynes' MaxEnt methodology [10, 11], we follow the original idea of Aoki [1] to implement a canonical MaxEnt inference model for the replication of industrial firms' dynamics over a space of economic states. We develop an aggregate model to infer the distributions of agents at meso level using representative states. In particular, we estimate the access probability for agents in different states consistently with macroscopic economic constraints. The model is calibrated on the basis of a sample of firms, drawn from the AMADEUS database, within the manufacturing industry made up of nine sectors of economic activity from 1995 to 2004, and results come to experimental proof at aggregate macroscopic level.

Keywords: Statistical mechanics, canonical ensemble, MaxEnt, Gibbs distribution, econophysics, Cobb-Douglas technology

Suggested Citation

Landini, Simone and Di Guilmi, Corrado and Gallegati, Marco, A Maxtent Model for Macroscenario Analysis (October 2008). Advances in Complex Systems, Vol. 11, No. 5, pp. 719-744, 2008 , Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1512233

Simone Landini (Contact Author)

IRES Piemonte, Socio-Economic Research Institute of Piedmont ( email )

Via Nizza 18
Turin, Turin 10125
Italy
+390116666404 (Phone)
+390116666469 (Fax)

Corrado Di Guilmi

Universita' Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona - Department of Economics ( email )

Piazzale Martelli, 8
60121 Ancona
Italy
+39 071 2207110 (Phone)
+39 071 2207102 (Fax)

Marco Gallegati

Polytechnic University of Marche - Faculty of Economics ( email )

Piazzale Martelli, 8
60121 Ancona
Italy

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