The Great Recession: US Dynamics and Spillovers to the World Economy

Posted: 18 Dec 2010 Last revised: 9 Jun 2013

See all articles by Claudio Morana

Claudio Morana

Università di Milano Bicocca; Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca - Department of Economics, Management and Statistics (DEMS); Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca - Center for European Studies (CefES); Center for Economic Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies (CeRP); Rimini Center for Economic Analysis - Europe ETS; Rimini Center for Economic Analysis - HQ

Fabio C. Bagliano

University of Turin - Department of Economics and Statistics; Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies (CeRP); University of Turin - Collegio Carlo Alberto

Date Written: November 16, 2010

Abstract

The paper aims at assessing the mechanics of the Great Recession, considering both its domestic propagation within the US, as well as its spillovers to advanced and emerging economies. A total of 50 countries has been investigated by means of a large-scale open economy macroeconometric model, providing an accurate assessment of the international macro/finance interface over the whole 1980-2009 period. It is found that a boom-bust credit cycle interpretation of the crisis is consistent with the empirical evidence. Moreover, concerning the real effects of the crisis within the US, stronger evidence of an asset prices channel, rather than a liquidity channel, has been detected. The results also support the effectiveness of the expansionary fiscal/monetary policy mix implemented by the Fed and the US government. Concerning the spillovers to the world economy, it is found that while the financial shock has spilled over to foreign countries through US housing and stock price dynamics, as well as excess liquidity creation, the trade channel likely is the key transmission mechanism of the real shock.

Keywords: Great Recession, financial crisis, economic crisis, boom-bust, credit cycle, international business cycle, factor vector autoregressive models

JEL Classification: C22, E32, F36

Suggested Citation

Morana, Claudio and Bagliano, Fabio C., The Great Recession: US Dynamics and Spillovers to the World Economy (November 16, 2010). Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 36, No. 1, 2012, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1709955 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1709955

Claudio Morana (Contact Author)

Università di Milano Bicocca ( email )

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Fabio C. Bagliano

University of Turin - Department of Economics and Statistics ( email )

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University of Turin - Collegio Carlo Alberto ( email )

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