Estimating the Effects of Kyoto on Bilateral Trade Flows Using Matching Econometrics

28 Pages Posted: 15 Mar 2013

See all articles by Rahel Aichele

Rahel Aichele

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) - Ifo Institute

Gabriel J. Felbermayr

University of Stuttgart-Hohenheim

Date Written: March 2013

Abstract

Many Kyoto countries fear a loss of competitiveness due to unilateral climate policy efforts; policymakers therefore call for carbon‐related border tax adjustments. With this paper we attempt to estimate the treatment effect of Kyoto commitment on bilateral export flows using regression‐adjusted differences‐in‐differences matching techniques. The gravity and international environmental agreement formation literatures provide guidelines for the choice of matching variables. We find that Kyoto countries' exports are reduced by 13 to 14 per cent due to Kyoto commitment. Trade effects are largest in energy‐intensive, homogeneous industries such as iron and steel, non‐ferrous metals, organic and inorganic chemicals but also in machinery and equipment.

Suggested Citation

Aichele, Rahel and Felbermayr, Gabriel J., Estimating the Effects of Kyoto on Bilateral Trade Flows Using Matching Econometrics (March 2013). The World Economy, Vol. 36, Issue 3, pp. 303-330, 2013, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2233771 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/twec.12053

Rahel Aichele (Contact Author)

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) - Ifo Institute ( email )

Gabriel J. Felbermayr

University of Stuttgart-Hohenheim ( email )

Keplerstraße 17
D-70174 Stuttgart
Germany

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