La Crisi e i moltiplicatori fiscali (The Crisis and the Fiscal Multipliers)

Moneta e Credito, Vol. 66, No. 262, 131-153, 2013

23 Pages Posted: 19 Jun 2014

Date Written: June 15, 2013

Abstract

Italian Abstract: La tesi dell' austerità espansiva, che implica valori negativi per i moltiplicatori fiscali, viene criticata sia dal punto di vista teorico che da quello empirico. Gli studi più recenti stimano moltiplicatori con valori relativamente alti, in contrasto alle stime di valori molto bassi basate sui modelli DSGE o le stime empiriche dell'FMI. Soprattuto durante le recessioni e quando i tassi di interesse sono vicini allo zero, i moltiplicato della spesa, soprattuto quelli degli investimenti e i traferimenti alle famiglie a basso reddito, sono significativamente maggiori dei moltiplicatori dal lato delle entrate. Quindi le riduzioni di spesa hanno impatti recessivi maggiori degli aumenti delle imposte.

English Abstract: The expansionary fiscal contraction thesis, that implies negative values for the fiscal multipliers, is criticised both from a theoretical and an empirical point of view. The most recent researches find multipliers of rather high positive values, in contrast with the rather low ones of the DSGE models and of the previous IMF empirical estimates. Especially in downturns and when interest rates are already near zero, the expenditure multipliers, in particular those of investments and those of the transfers targeted to low income households, are significantly larger than the tax multipliers. Hence, expenditure reductions have greater recessionary effects than tax increases, contrary to what is thought in many quarters of both the EU and the ECB. Thus, in order not to depress too much the prospects of growth or not to worsen the recessionary conditions, it seems that the process of fiscal consolidation should be slowed down. Also, to foster the recovery without worsening the budget deficits, it seems useful: a) to increase the expenditure for investments and for targeted transfers and to scale down those for general transfers; b) to reduce the taxes on labour income and to increase those on the high levels of income and property.

Note: Downloadable document is in Italian.

Keywords: expansionary fiscal contraction, fiscal consolidation, fiscal multiplier, growth-friendly fiscal policy

JEL Classification: E12, E62, H63

Suggested Citation

Cozzi, Terenzio, La Crisi e i moltiplicatori fiscali (The Crisis and the Fiscal Multipliers) (June 15, 2013). Moneta e Credito, Vol. 66, No. 262, 131-153, 2013, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2456257

Terenzio Cozzi (Contact Author)

University of Turin ( email )

Via Po 53
Torino, Turin - Piedmont 10100
Italy

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