Predictable and Avoidable: What's Next?
28 Pages Posted: 28 Aug 2014 Last revised: 7 Oct 2014
Date Written: September 2014
The author of this paper (Dr. Ivo Pezzuto) has been one of the first authors to write back in 2008 about the alleged "subprime mortgage loans fraud" which has triggered the 2008 financial crisis, in combination with multiple other complex, highly interrelated, and concurrent factors.
The author has been also one of the first authors to report in that same working paper of 2008 (available on SSRN and titled "Miraculous Financial Engineering or Toxic Finance? The Genesis of the U.S. Subprime Mortgage Loans Crisis and its Consequences on the Global Financial Markets and Real Economy") the high probability of a Eurozone debt crisis, due to a number of unsolved structural macroeconomic problems, the lack of a single crisis resolution scheme, current account imbalances, and in some countries, housing bubbles/high private debt.
In the book published in 2013 and titled "Predictable and Avoidable: Repairing Economic Dislocation and Preventing the Recurrence of Crisis", Dr. Ivo Pezzuto has exposed the root causes of the financial crisis in order to enables readers to understand that the crisis we have seen was predictable and should have been avoidable, and that a recurrence can be avoided, if lessons are learned and the right action taken.
Almost one year after the publication of the book "Predictable and Avoidable: Repairing Economic Dislocation and Preventing the Recurrence of Crisis", the author has decided to write this working paper to explore what happened in the meantime to the financial markets and to the financial regulation implementation. Most of all, the author with this working paper aims to provide an updated analysis as strategist and scenario analyst on the topics addressed in the book "Predictable and Avoidable" based on a forward-looking perspective and on potential "tail risk" scenarios. The topics reported in this paper relate to financial crises; Government policy; financial regulation; corporate governance; credit risk management; financial risk management; economic policy; Euro Zone debt crisis; the "Great Recession"; business ethics; sociology, finance and financial markets.
This working paper aims to contribute to the debate about the change needed in the banking and finance industries and to supervisory frameworks, in order to enhance regulatory mechanisms and to improve global financial stability and sustainability.
This paper aims to demonstrate that, in spite of the artificially reduced volatility in the markets, systemic risks have not been reduced after the global financial crisis and that, currently (September 2014), adverse scenarios seem to be much more likely than previously expected by regulators and supervisory authorities, due to the prolonged massive accommodative monetary policies, the increased economic and geo-political risks, and some incomplete or unfit financial regulation. Thus, the stress testing models, their underlying assumptions, and the supervisory authorities’ oversight practices should be probably revised to take into account the rising risks of the new emerging scenario.
Keywords: financial crisis, eurozone debt crisis, financial stability, credit, derivatives, financial regulation, financial frauds, economic outlook, economic policy, corporate governance, risk management, macro strategy analysis, scenario analysis, business ethics, finance
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