Weather Shocks and English Wheat Yields, 1690-1871.

23 Pages Posted: 12 Mar 2015

See all articles by Liam Brunt

Liam Brunt

NHH - Norwegian School of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

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Date Written: March 5, 2015

Abstract

We estimate a time series model of weather shocks on English wheat yields for the early nineteenth century and use it to predict weather effects on yield levels from 1697 to 1871. This reveals that yields in the 1690s were depressed by unusually poor weather; and those in the late 1850s were inflated by unusually good weather. This has led researchers to overestimate the underlying growth of yields over the period by perhaps 50 per cent. Correcting for this effect would largely reconcile the conflicting primal and dual estimates of productivity growth over the period.

Keywords: weather, agriculture, productivity

JEL Classification: N5, O3, Q1, Q2

Suggested Citation

Brunt, Liam, Weather Shocks and English Wheat Yields, 1690-1871. (March 5, 2015). NHH Dept. of Economics Discussion Paper No. 02/2015, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2577197 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2577197

Liam Brunt (Contact Author)

NHH - Norwegian School of Economics ( email )

Department of Economics
Helleveien 30
N-5035 Bergen, Hordaland
Norway

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

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