The Macro Impact of the Portuguese Constitutional Court Decisions Regarding the Budgetary Proposals of the Portuguese Budget Law (2012, 2013, 2014)
ISEG-UL Economics Department Working Paper No. 06/2015/DE/UECECEMAPRE
15 Pages Posted: 14 Mar 2015
Date Written: March 12, 2015
We review the main budgetary measures not accepted by the Portuguese Constitutional Court in the Budget Laws of 2012, 2013 and 2014. Considering the feedback effect of the fiscal impulse, the impact on the budget balance is -0.42% and of -0.34% of GDP respectively for 2013 and for 2014; in both years the impact of the fiscal expansion could result in rather mitigated reductions in the unemployment rate in the range of 0.1 percent; the impact on the government debt level is around 0.42% of GDP in 2013, declining from then on, in a conservative estimate, and about 2.95% of GDP in 2020 in the worst case scenario.
Keywords: budget balance, fiscal consolidation, debt-to-GDP ratio, Portugal
JEL Classification: E62, E65, H62
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation