Is It a Fallacy to Believe in the Hot Hand in the NBA Three-Point Contest?

IGIER Working Paper No. 548

42 Pages Posted: 30 May 2015 Last revised: 29 Nov 2021

See all articles by Joshua B. Miller

Joshua B. Miller

University of Melbourne - Department of Economics

Adam Sanjurjo

Universidad de Alicante - Fundamentos del Análisis Económico (FAE)

Date Written: September 19, 2019

Abstract

The NBA Three-Point Contest has been considered an ideal setting to study the hot hand, as it showcases the elite professional shooters that hot hand beliefs are typically directed towards, but in an environment that eliminates many of the confounds present in game action. We collect 34 years of NBA Three-Point Contest television broadcast data (1986-2020), apply a statistical approach that improves on those of previous studies, and find considerable evidence of hot hand shooting in and across individuals. Our results support fans' and experts' widely held belief in the hot hand among NBA shooters.

Keywords: Hot Hand Fallacy, Hot Hand Effect

JEL Classification: C12, C14, C93, D03

Suggested Citation

Miller, Joshua B. and Sanjurjo, Adam, Is It a Fallacy to Believe in the Hot Hand in the NBA Three-Point Contest? (September 19, 2019). IGIER Working Paper No. 548, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2611987 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2611987

Joshua B. Miller (Contact Author)

University of Melbourne - Department of Economics ( email )

111 Barry St.
Melbourne, VIC, 3053
Australia

HOME PAGE: http://joshua-benjamin-miller.com

Adam Sanjurjo

Universidad de Alicante - Fundamentos del Análisis Económico (FAE) ( email )

Campus de San Vicente
Alicante, 03690
Spain

HOME PAGE: http://sites.google.com/site/adamangelsanjurjo/

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