Fiscal Model Forecast for the 2016 Presidential Election
11 Pages Posted: 14 Aug 2016
Date Written: August 11, 2016
The Fiscal Model of Presidential Elections, as modified after its failure to forecast President Obama’s reelection in 2012, accounts for all but three out of sample retrodictions since 1916. This year, its point forecast has the incumbent Democrats losing with 48.2% of the two-party vote.
Keywords: fiscal model, 2016 forecast, presidential election
JEL Classification: ZOO
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation