Economic Analysis and Forecasting in the Global Economy and in Emerging and Developing Regions Including Africa: How Informative Is the Ifo World Economic Survey (WES)?

16 Pages Posted: 18 Nov 2016

See all articles by Johanna Garnitz

Johanna Garnitz

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) - Ifo Institute

Willi Leibfritz

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Date Written: October 18, 2016

Abstract

Economists around the world rely in addition to official statistics on business (and consumer) surveys, which are more up-to-date. However, for many emerging and developing countries there is a lack of such surveys. This gap can, at least partly, be filled by the Ifo World Economic Survey (WES). In this paper we first describe this survey and also examine how helpful it is for macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting. We find that this survey provides important up-to-date information about the cyclical stage of the global economy and of major emerging and developing regions including Africa. Increasing the number of participating experts could further improve its usefulness for macroeconomic analysis in these regions.

Keywords: macroeconomic analysis, business cycle, global economy, emerging and developing countries, Africa

JEL Classification: E010, F010, N140, N150, N160, N170

Suggested Citation

Garnitz, Johanna and Leibfritz, Willi, Economic Analysis and Forecasting in the Global Economy and in Emerging and Developing Regions Including Africa: How Informative Is the Ifo World Economic Survey (WES)? (October 18, 2016). CESifo Working Paper Series No. 6126, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2871165 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2871165

Johanna Garnitz

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) - Ifo Institute ( email )

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, 01069
Germany

Willi Leibfritz (Contact Author)

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) ( email )

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

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