VAR Meets DSGE: Uncovering the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Low-Income Countries
46 Pages Posted: 9 Dec 2016
Date Written: April 2016
VAR methods suggest that the monetary transmission mechanism may be weak and unreliable in low-income countries (LICs). But are structural VARs identified via short-run restrictions capable of detecting a transmission mechanism when one exists, under research conditions typical of these countries? Using small DSGEs as data-generating processes, we assess the impact on VAR-based inference of short data samples, measurement error, high-frequency supply shocks, and other features of the LIC environment. The impact of these features on finite-sample bias appears to be relatively modest when identification is valid - a strong caveat, especially in LICs. However, many of these features undermine the precision of estimated impulse responses to monetary policy shocks, and cumulatively they suggest that 'insignificant' results can be expected even when the underlying transmission mechanism is strong.
Keywords: Monetary transmission mechanism, Low-income developing countries, Variables (Mathematics), Vector autoregression, General equilibrium models, Monetary Transmission Mechanism; Monetary Policy; Low Income Countries; VectorAutoregression Methods; Monte Carlo Methods
JEL Classification: E47, E52, O11, O23
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation