Evaluating the Impact of a Canada-ASEAN FTA

Research Report for the Business Council of Canada and the Canada-ASEAN Business Council, Forthcoming

47 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2017 Last revised: 15 May 2017

See all articles by Dan Ciuriak

Dan Ciuriak

Ciuriak Consulting Inc.; Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI); C.D. Howe Institute; Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada; BKP Development Research & Consulting GmbH

Ali Dadkhah

Ciuriak Consulting Inc.; Infinity Law

Jingliang Xiao

Infinite-Sum Modeling Inc.; Ciuriak Consulting Inc.

Date Written: May 15, 2017

Abstract

This study an analysis of the trade and economic implications of a Canada-ASEAN free trade agreement (FTA) using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. The level of ambition is calibrated to be consistent with ASEAN’s most ambitious FTA to date, namely that with Australia and New Zealand (AANZFTA). The assessment takes into account tariff reductions and impacts on non-tariff barriers to goods trade, services trade and investment based on changes to the parties’ trade-related measures as captured by the OECD’s Trade Facilitation Indicators (for goods), Services Trade Restrictiveness Index, and Foreign Direct Investment Restrictiveness Index. We find a positive but modest impact on bilateral trade with consequent modest welfare and real GDP gains. Factoring in the reduction of uncertainty that the FTA would have in a climate of rising uncertainty about access to traditional markets, and the current under-performance of bilateral Canada-ASEAN trade compared to expectations based on economic geography, the reported trade gains and the economic gains they leverage could be substantially higher.

Keywords: Canada, ASEAN, FTA, CGE

JEL Classification: F13, F15

Suggested Citation

Ciuriak, Dan and Dadkhah, Ali and Xiao, Jingliang, Evaluating the Impact of a Canada-ASEAN FTA (May 15, 2017). Research Report for the Business Council of Canada and the Canada-ASEAN Business Council, Forthcoming, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2955047

Dan Ciuriak (Contact Author)

Ciuriak Consulting Inc. ( email )

83 Stewart St.
Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6H9
Canada

Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) ( email )

57 Erb Street West
Waterloo, Ontario N2L 6C2
Canada

C.D. Howe Institute ( email )

67 Yonge St., Suite 300
Toronto, Ontario M5E 1J8
Canada

Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada ( email )

Canada

HOME PAGE: http://ciuriakconsulting.com/

BKP Development Research & Consulting GmbH ( email )

Romanstrasse 74
München, 80639
Germany

Ali Dadkhah

Ciuriak Consulting Inc. ( email )

83 Stewart St.
Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6H9
Canada

Infinity Law ( email )

200-931 Fort St.
Victoria, V8V 3K3
Canada

Jingliang Xiao

Infinite-Sum Modeling Inc. ( email )

16167,Glenbrooks Pl
Vancouver, BC - British Columbia v4n1t3
Canada
6047245981 (Phone)
6047245981 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.infsum.com/en/

Ciuriak Consulting Inc. ( email )

83 Stewart St.
Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6H9
Canada

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