Brexit Trade Impacts: Alternative Scenarios

31 Pages Posted: 6 Jun 2017 Last revised: 24 Dec 2020

See all articles by Dan Ciuriak

Dan Ciuriak

Ciuriak Consulting Inc.; Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI); C.D. Howe Institute; Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada; BKP Development Research & Consulting GmbH

Ali Dadkhah

Ciuriak Consulting Inc.; Infinity Law

Jingliang Xiao

Infinite-Sum Modeling Inc.; Ciuriak Consulting Inc.

Date Written: June 12, 2017

Abstract

This note develops four alternative estimates of the trade-related impacts of the United Kingdom seceding from the European Union. We contrast two basic scenarios: an exit that re-sets the UK’s relationship with the rest of the EU to a WTO-rules most favoured nation basis (“Brexit”), versus a negotiated change in the UK’s status that largely preserves the UK’s integration with the rest of the EU at a level similar to that of the European Free Trade Association (“Brefta”). A third scenario introduces a “single market” effect that reflects EU27 “home bias” (EU27 preference for EU27 products). A fourth scenario introduces a UK-US free trade agreement in a context in which the TTIP not going ahead due to the widening gulf between EU and US positions on social and environmental issues under the Trump Administration.

Keywords: United Kingdom, European Union, Brexit, Brefta, TTIP, single market, exit, CGE

JEL Classification: F13, F14

Suggested Citation

Ciuriak, Dan and Dadkhah, Ali and Xiao, Jingliang, Brexit Trade Impacts: Alternative Scenarios (June 12, 2017). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2981314 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2981314

Dan Ciuriak (Contact Author)

Ciuriak Consulting Inc. ( email )

83 Stewart St.
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Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) ( email )

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C.D. Howe Institute ( email )

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Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada ( email )

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HOME PAGE: http://ciuriakconsulting.com/

BKP Development Research & Consulting GmbH ( email )

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Ali Dadkhah

Ciuriak Consulting Inc. ( email )

83 Stewart St.
Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6H9
Canada

Infinity Law ( email )

200-931 Fort St.
Victoria, V8V 3K3
Canada

Jingliang Xiao

Infinite-Sum Modeling Inc. ( email )

16167,Glenbrooks Pl
Vancouver, BC - British Columbia v4n1t3
Canada
6047245981 (Phone)
6047245981 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.infsum.com/en/

Ciuriak Consulting Inc. ( email )

83 Stewart St.
Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6H9
Canada

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