The Economic and Demographic Determinants of Donald Trump's 2016 Election Victory
37 Pages Posted: 16 Nov 2018
Date Written: October 11, 2018
This paper utilizes cluster-robust, fixed effects OLS regression to find that long term negative economic indicators, white, non-bachelor's degree holding male populations, and to a far lesser extent, short-term economic improvements were indicative of Donald Trump support in the 2016 election. I then utilize this analysis to quantify the effect that each of these factors had on Trump's electoral college victory. By the most conservative estimate, Trump losing either the voters from long term economic conditions or from white-male, non-bachelor's degree holding populations would have led to Hillary Clinton having won the election. Trump would still have won the election having lost the voters from short term economic changes, even by the most liberal estimates.
Keywords: 2016 United States Presidential Election, social dominance orientation, pocketbook voting, economic voting, populism, identity politics
JEL Classification: C13, C21, D72, F68, H11, K16, L38, P16
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