The Economic and Demographic Determinants of Donald Trump's 2016 Election Victory

37 Pages Posted: 16 Nov 2018

See all articles by Brian Flaxman

Brian Flaxman

University of Colorado-Boulder

Date Written: October 11, 2018

Abstract

This paper utilizes cluster-robust, fixed effects OLS regression to find that long term negative economic indicators, white, non-bachelor's degree holding male populations, and to a far lesser extent, short-term economic improvements were indicative of Donald Trump support in the 2016 election. I then utilize this analysis to quantify the effect that each of these factors had on Trump's electoral college victory. By the most conservative estimate, Trump losing either the voters from long term economic conditions or from white-male, non-bachelor's degree holding populations would have led to Hillary Clinton having won the election. Trump would still have won the election having lost the voters from short term economic changes, even by the most liberal estimates.

Keywords: 2016 United States Presidential Election, social dominance orientation, pocketbook voting, economic voting, populism, identity politics

JEL Classification: C13, C21, D72, F68, H11, K16, L38, P16

Suggested Citation

Flaxman, Brian, The Economic and Demographic Determinants of Donald Trump's 2016 Election Victory (October 11, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3264520 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3264520

Brian Flaxman (Contact Author)

University of Colorado-Boulder ( email )

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
136
Abstract Views
673
rank
268,096
PlumX Metrics