A Comparison of Pricing Models for Mineral Rights: Copper Mine in China

37 Pages Posted: 20 Mar 2020

See all articles by Chang Xiao

Chang Xiao

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Ionut Florescu

Stevens Institute of Technology - School of Business; Stevens Institute of Technology

Jinsheng Zhou

China University of Geosciences (CUG) - School of Humanities and Economic Management

Date Written: February 25, 2019

Abstract

Purchasing mineral rights to allow a corporation to extract minerals is a large investment and potentially very profitable. Generally, the assessment and valuation process is conducted by an official organization at the nation's governmental level. From a corporation perspective it is thus crucial to calculate an accurate value of the right to exploit a mineral product or what we call ``mineral right''. In this work we compare three valuation methods and we compare their results in case of pricing a copper mine in China. We explain and apply the official valuation method based on a simple Discounted Cash Flow (DCF). We present what we believe is a more accurate valuation based on the term structure of future mineral prices: the so called modified Discounted Cash Flow (mDCF) method. Finally, we contrast with a method based on real options which considers the mineral right as a swaption. We implement two real options models: the classical Black model and a more modern Miltersen and Schwartz model. We highlight and discuss differences and commonalities between the three valuation methods. Finally, we make a recommendation for future financial reporting based what we learn from the three methods.

Keywords: Mineral Rights, Mining Valuation, Futures, Real Options

JEL Classification: 91B32, 91B62, 91B70

Suggested Citation

Xiao, Chang and Florescu, Ionut and Zhou, Jinsheng, A Comparison of Pricing Models for Mineral Rights: Copper Mine in China (February 25, 2019). Resources Policy, Vol. 65, March 2020, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3544311

Chang Xiao

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Ionut Florescu (Contact Author)

Stevens Institute of Technology - School of Business ( email )

Hoboken, NJ 07030
United States

Stevens Institute of Technology ( email )

Castle Point on the Hudson
Hoboken, NJ 07030
United States

Jinsheng Zhou

China University of Geosciences (CUG) - School of Humanities and Economic Management ( email )

Beijing
China

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