Simulation of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Scenarios with Possibility of Reinfection

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Vol. 139, pp. 110296

16 Pages Posted: 6 Apr 2020 Last revised: 21 Oct 2020

See all articles by Egor Malkov

Egor Malkov

University of Minnesota - Twin Cities - Department of Economics

Date Written: September 3, 2020

Abstract

Epidemiological models of COVID-19 transmission assume that recovered individuals have a fully protected immunity. To date, there is no definite answer about whether people who recover from COVID-19 can be reinfected with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In the absence of a clear answer about the risk of reinfection, it is instructive to consider the possible scenarios. To study the epidemiological dynamics with the possibility of reinfection, I use a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Resistant-Susceptible model with the time-varying transmission rate. I consider three different ways of modeling reinfection. The crucial feature of this study is that I explore both the difference between the reinfection and no-reinfection scenarios and how the mitigation measures affect this difference. The principal results are the following. First, the dynamics of the reinfection and no-reinfection scenarios are indistinguishable before the infection peak. Second, the mitigation measures delay not only the infection peak, but also the moment when the difference between the reinfection and no-reinfection scenarios becomes prominent. These results are robust to various modeling assumptions.

Keywords: SEIRS model, Epidemiological dynamics, COVID-19, Reinfection, Mitigation

JEL Classification: C65, I18

Suggested Citation

Malkov, Egor, Simulation of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Scenarios with Possibility of Reinfection (September 3, 2020). Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Vol. 139, pp. 110296, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3569097 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3569097

Egor Malkov (Contact Author)

University of Minnesota - Twin Cities - Department of Economics ( email )

1925 Fourth Street South
Minneapolis, MN 55455
United States

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
472
Abstract Views
3,799
rank
77,849
PlumX Metrics