Robust Pricing under Strategic Trading
73 Pages Posted: 27 May 2020 Last revised: 30 Jan 2021
Date Written: January 30, 2021
We study strategic trading with a market maker who does not know the joint distribution of public information and an asset's value, and hence cannot interpret information properly. Following a public event, a probabilistic-ally informed trader who knows the distribution and liquidity traders trade. The market maker adopts a robust linear pricing strategy that has the best worst-case payoff guarantee. We show that such a strategy is equivalent to a two-step learning procedure, and characterize the unique linear equilibrium. Expected equilibrium prices exhibit under-reaction to public information. If the trading frequency is arbitrarily high, the market maker fully reveals the distribution in the price eventually.
Keywords: Ambiguity Aversion, Dynamic Strategic Trading, Price Drift, Under-reaction
JEL Classification: G14, D80
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