Rotation as Contagion Mitigation

22 Pages Posted: 29 Jun 2020 Last revised: 16 Aug 2020

See all articles by Jeffrey Ely

Jeffrey Ely

Northwestern University

Andrea Galeotti

University of Essex

Jakub Steiner

Charles University in Prague - CERGE-EI (Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute)

Date Written: June 2020

Abstract

We study rotation schemes that govern individuals' activities within an organization during an epidemic. We optimize the frequency of rotation and degree of cross-mixing of the rotating subpopulations. Frequency affects risk over the length of diffusion within the infected subpopulation until the organization detects and/or reacts to the infection. If the reaction time is short, then such risk is undesirable since the growth of the prevalence is initially convex in time. Frequent rotation, which acts as insurance against exposure time risk, is then optimal. Infrequent rotation becomes optimal if the organization reacts slowly. Mixing of the rotating subpopulations is detrimental because it increases the share of interactions between sick and healthy individuals. However, the effect of mixing is small if the terminal prevalence is low in the absence of mixing.

Keywords: epidemic mitigation, rotation

JEL Classification: I18

Suggested Citation

Ely, Jeffrey and Galeotti, Andrea and Steiner, Jakub, Rotation as Contagion Mitigation (June 2020). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP14953, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3638058

Jeffrey Ely (Contact Author)

Northwestern University

2001 Sheridan Road
Evanston, IL 60208
United States

Andrea Galeotti

University of Essex ( email )

Wivenhoe Park
Colchester, CO4 3SQ
United Kingdom

Jakub Steiner

Charles University in Prague - CERGE-EI (Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute) ( email )

P.O. Box 882
7 Politickych veznu
Prague 1, 111 21
Czech Republic
+420 605 286 947 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.cerge-ei.cz

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