A Novel Causal Risk-Based Decision-Making Methodology: The Case of Coronavirus

Risk Analysis: An International Journal, Volume 41, Issue 5, pp. 814-830, May 2021 DOI: 10.1111/risa.13678

30 Pages Posted: 10 Aug 2020 Last revised: 7 Jun 2021

See all articles by Stavros K. Stavroglou

Stavros K. Stavroglou

University College Dublin; Monash University

Bilal M. Ayyub

University of Maryland - College Park

Vasileios Kallinterakis

University of Liverpool - Management School (ULMS)

Athanasios A. Pantelous

Monash University - Department of Econometrics & Business Statistics

H. Eugene Stanley

Boston University - Center for Polymer Studies

Date Written: October 11, 2020

Abstract

Either in the form of nature’s wrath or a pandemic, catastrophes cause major destructions in societies, thus requiring policy and decision makers to take urgent action by evaluating a host of interdependent parameters, and possible scenarios. The primary purpose of this pa-per is to propose a novel risk-based, decision-making methodology capable of unveiling causal relationships between pairs of variables. Motivated by the ongoing global emergency of the coronavirus pandemic, the paper elaborates on this powerful quantitative framework drawing on data from the US at the county level aiming at assisting policy and decision makers in taking timely action amid this emergency. This methodology offers a basis for identifying potential scenarios and consequences of the ongoing 2020 pandemic by drawing on weather variables to examine the causal impact of changing weather on the trend of daily coronavirus cases.

Note: Funding: None to declare

Declaration of Interest: None to declare

Keywords: Decision Making, Risk Quadruplet, Quantitative Analysis, Causality, Coronavirus, US County-level Data

JEL Classification: D81, C63, C65

Suggested Citation

Stavroglou, Stavros K. and Ayyub, Bilal M. and Kallinterakis, Vasileios and Pantelous, Athanasios A. and Stanley, H. Eugene, A Novel Causal Risk-Based Decision-Making Methodology: The Case of Coronavirus (October 11, 2020). Risk Analysis: An International Journal, Volume 41, Issue 5, pp. 814-830, May 2021 DOI: 10.1111/risa.13678, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3665456 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3665456

Stavros K. Stavroglou

University College Dublin ( email )

Belfield
Belfield, Dublin 4 4
Ireland

HOME PAGE: http://stavroglou.com/#/

Monash University ( email )

900 Dandenong Road
Caulfield East, 3145
Australia
VIC 3800 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://stavroglou.com/#/

Bilal M. Ayyub

University of Maryland - College Park ( email )

College Park, MD 20742
United States

Vasileios Kallinterakis

University of Liverpool - Management School (ULMS) ( email )

Chatham Street
Liverpool, L69 7ZH
United Kingdom

Athanasios A. Pantelous (Contact Author)

Monash University - Department of Econometrics & Business Statistics ( email )

Wellington Road
Clayton, Victoria 3168
Australia

H. Eugene Stanley

Boston University - Center for Polymer Studies ( email )

Boston, MA 02215
United States

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