Is COVID Revealing a Virus in CMBS 2.0?

115 Pages Posted: 23 Aug 2020 Last revised: 13 Oct 2021

See all articles by John M. Griffin

John M. Griffin

University of Texas at Austin - Department of Finance

Alex Priest

University of Texas at Austin - Department of Finance

Date Written: September 20, 2021

Abstract

Commercial loan valuations crucially depend on accurate loan income, but underwritten income on CMBS loans is commonly overstated relative to actual property income. Consistent with these differences being originator specific, income overstatement in CMBS 2.0 deals varies widely and persistently across originators, is priced by originators, related across property types within an originator, predictable ex-ante, and accompanied by inflation of past financials. Risk-retention and associated regulation had no discernable effect on income overstatement. Originator income overstatement is highly predictive of pre- and COVID-period loan distress. Overall, recent market
stresses reveal large systemic differences in underwriting standards across originators.

Keywords: Commercial Mortgages, Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities, Income Overstatement

JEL Classification: G21, G23, R30

Suggested Citation

Griffin, John M. and Priest, Alex, Is COVID Revealing a Virus in CMBS 2.0? (September 20, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3671162 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3671162

John M. Griffin (Contact Author)

University of Texas at Austin - Department of Finance ( email )

Red McCombs School of Business
Austin, TX 78712
United States
512-471-6621 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.jgriffin.info

Alex Priest

University of Texas at Austin - Department of Finance ( email )

Red McCombs School of Business
Austin, TX 78712
United States

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