COVID-19 Induced Lockdown Effect on Wheat Supply Chain and Prices in India – Insights from State Interventions Led Resilience
31 Pages Posted: 28 Dec 2020 Last revised: 12 Jul 2021
Date Written: December 26, 2020
COVID-19 incidence in India, impacted the food market, wheat in particular, as the crop harvest coincided with the lockdown disrupting the supply chain and prices posing a few researchable issues - the lockdown effect on wheat supply chain; how the state intervention bolstered the sector to restore; the insights the government interventions offer, etc. The study, using the interrupted time series analysis, investigated the disruption in wheat supply chain, and captured the impact of lockdown on wheat prices. Despite relaxation allowed to agricultural-related activities, lack of transport and labour shortage were reported. Nevertheless, the country registered a record wheat procurement of 38.99 million tonnes. Though the prices spiked post-lockdown, there was no evidence of structural-break and persisting volatility. The ﬁndings affirm that supply chain disruption is the main driver for the observed price changes and government interventions like staggered procurement and logistics support resulted in restoration of the wheat economy. The relief measures, infrastructure and its efficient usage, and easing restrictions rendered resilience to wheat supply chain against the COVID-19 shocks. The experience of coordinated efforts of the state machinery and the cooperative farm communities offers confidence about the national capacities to manage disasters of even greater scale in agriculture.
Keywords: COVID-19, retail price, wholesale price, market disruption, interrupted time series
JEL Classification: D12, E31, Q11, Q18, Q13, L51
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation