COVID-19 Induced Lockdown Effect on Wheat Supply Chain and Prices in India – Insights from State Interventions Led Resilience

31 Pages Posted: 28 Dec 2020 Last revised: 12 Jul 2021

See all articles by A G Adeeth Cariappa

A G Adeeth Cariappa

ICAR - National Dairy Research Institute

Kamlesh Kumar Acharya

National Dairy Research Institute - Department of Dairy Economics, Statistics & Management

Chaitanya Ashok Adhav

ICAR-National Dairy Research Institute - Department of Dairy Economics, Statistics and Management

Sendhil R

ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research

P. Ramasundaram

Indian Council of Agricultural Research

Anuj Kumar

ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research

Satyavir Singh

ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research

Gyanendra Pratap Singh

Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) - ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research

Date Written: December 26, 2020

Abstract

COVID-19 incidence in India, impacted the food market, wheat in particular, as the crop harvest coincided with the lockdown disrupting the supply chain and prices posing a few researchable issues - the lockdown effect on wheat supply chain; how the state intervention bolstered the sector to restore; the insights the government interventions offer, etc. The study, using the interrupted time series analysis, investigated the disruption in wheat supply chain, and captured the impact of lockdown on wheat prices. Despite relaxation allowed to agricultural-related activities, lack of transport and labour shortage were reported. Nevertheless, the country registered a record wheat procurement of 38.99 million tonnes. Though the prices spiked post-lockdown, there was no evidence of structural-break and persisting volatility. The findings affirm that supply chain disruption is the main driver for the observed price changes and government interventions like staggered procurement and logistics support resulted in restoration of the wheat economy. The relief measures, infrastructure and its efficient usage, and easing restrictions rendered resilience to wheat supply chain against the COVID-19 shocks. The experience of coordinated efforts of the state machinery and the cooperative farm communities offers confidence about the national capacities to manage disasters of even greater scale in agriculture.

Keywords: COVID-19, retail price, wholesale price, market disruption, interrupted time series

JEL Classification: D12, E31, Q11, Q18, Q13, L51

Suggested Citation

Cariappa, A G Adeeth and Acharya, Kamlesh Kumar and Adhav, Chaitanya Ashok and R, Sendhil and Ramasundaram, P. and Kumar, Anuj and Singh, Satyavir and Singh, Gyanendra Pratap, COVID-19 Induced Lockdown Effect on Wheat Supply Chain and Prices in India – Insights from State Interventions Led Resilience (December 26, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3755377 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3755377

A G Adeeth Cariappa

ICAR - National Dairy Research Institute ( email )

Karnal, Haryana 132001
India
+919741000909 (Phone)

Kamlesh Kumar Acharya

National Dairy Research Institute - Department of Dairy Economics, Statistics & Management ( email )

Karnal (Haryana) 132 001
India
9437204130 (Phone)

Chaitanya Ashok Adhav

ICAR-National Dairy Research Institute - Department of Dairy Economics, Statistics and Management ( email )

Karnal (Haryana) 132 001
India

Sendhil R (Contact Author)

ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research ( email )

PO Box 158, Agarsain Marg
Karnal, 132001
India
132001 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://https://iiwbr.icar.gov.in/team_member/dr-r-sendhil/

P. Ramasundaram

Indian Council of Agricultural Research ( email )

Krishi Anusandhan Bhavan II
Pusa
New Delhi 110012, Delhi 110012
India
9716134485 (Phone)
110012 (Fax)

Anuj Kumar

ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research

PO Box 158, Agarsain Marg
Karnal, 132001
India

Satyavir Singh

ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research

PO Box 158, Agarsain Marg
Karnal, 132001
India

Gyanendra Pratap Singh

Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) - ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research ( email )

PO Box 158, Agarsain Marg
Karnal, 132001
India

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