An Integrated Data Framework for Policy Guidance in Times of Dynamic Economic Shocks

33 Pages Posted: 17 Sep 2021

See all articles by Julian Oliver Dörr

Julian Oliver Dörr

ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research

Jan Kinne

Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW)

David Lenz

Justus-Liebig-University Giessen

Georg Licht

ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research

Peter Winker

University of Giessen - Department of Economics

Date Written: 2021

Abstract

Usually, offcial and survey-based statistics guide policy makers in their choice of response instruments to economic crises. However, in an early phase, after a sudden and unforeseen shock has caused incalculable and fast-changing dynamics, data from traditional statistics are only available with non-negligible time delays. This leaves policy makers uncertain about how to most effectively manage their economic countermeasures to support businesses, especially when they need to respond quickly, as in the COVID-19 pandemic. Given this information deficit, we propose a framework that guides policy makers throughout all stages of an unforeseen economic shock by providing timely and reliable data as a basis to make informed decisions. We do so by combining early stage ‘ad hoc’ web analyses, ‘follow-up’ business surveys, and ‘retrospective’ analyses of firm outcomes. A particular focus of our framework is on assessing the early effects of the pandemic, using highly dynamic and largescale data from corporate websites. Most notably, we show that textual references to the coronavirus pandemic published on a large sample of company websites and state-of-the-art text analysis methods allow to capture the heterogeneity of the crisis' effects at a very early stage and entail a leading indication on later movements in firm credit ratings.

Keywords: COVID-19, impact assessment, corporate sector, corporate websites, web mining, NLP

JEL Classification: C38, C45, C55, C80, H12

Suggested Citation

Dörr, Julian Oliver and Kinne, Jan and Lenz, David and Licht, Georg and Winker, Peter, An Integrated Data Framework for Policy Guidance in Times of Dynamic Economic Shocks (2021). ZEW - Centre for European Economic Research Discussion Paper No. 21-062, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3924887 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3924887

Julian Oliver Dörr (Contact Author)

ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research ( email )

P.O. Box 10 34 43
L 7,1
D-68034 Mannheim, 68034
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.zew.de/en/team/jdo

Jan Kinne

Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) ( email )

P.O. Box 10 34 43
L 7,1
D-68034 Mannheim, 68034
Germany

David Lenz

Justus-Liebig-University Giessen ( email )

Licher Str. 64
Giessen, 35394
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.uni-giessen.de/fbz/fb02/fb/professuren/vwl/winker/kontakt/mitarbeiter/lenz

Georg Licht

ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research ( email )

P.O. Box 10 34 43
L 7,1 D-68161 Mannheim
Germany

Peter Winker

University of Giessen - Department of Economics ( email )

Licher Str. 62
D-35394 Giessen, DE
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://wiwi.uni-giessen.de/home/oekonometrie/

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