Does Climate Change Affect Investment Performance? Evidence from Commercial Real Estate

Abstract

Combining granular data on temperatures across the continental US with micro-level commercial real estate (CRE) data from 1991 to 2020, we study the impact of exposure to extreme temperature shocks on investment performance of CRE at the individual asset level. We find that exposure to extreme temperatures significantly reduces average realized total returns in CRE. This result is driven by reduction in asset returns. We do not observe a significant effect of income return. We document substantial variation in sensitivity to temperature shocks across property types. Our results seem to be driven by shocks to time-varying CRE risk premium due to decreased predictability of future rental income.

Keywords: climate change, climate finance, commercial real estate, economic costs

JEL Classification: R30, F64, C21