Aggregate Load Profile in New York: A Bottom-Up Projection Tool to Understand Electrification Impacts

Abstract

Deep decarbonization power system planning studies usually lack detailed electricity demand projections. At the very least, these projections are aggregated and suffer from a deficit of transparency in their methodology. In a decarbonized future, electricity is however likely to play a much greater role in all aspects of the economy, while power generation will increasingly rely on variable sources such as wind and solar. Meeting demand at the right time with the right resources will represent a growing challenge. A detailed knowledge of possible future load profiles, and how the evolution of their drivers influences their shape, is therefore very important to plan adequately energy and power requirements, as well as regional interconnections and storage. This paper presents a bottom-up approach based on the useful energy consumed in the residential, commercial, transportation and industrial sectors. A projection tool is developed, providing hourly load profiles for a full year for the state of New York as an illustration. Three scenarios are investigated: business as usual, accelerated electrification and energy efficiency breakthrough. We find that the energy efficiency scenario leads to much lower electricity demand and peak – to the point that electricity consumption could decrease by 2040, even while electrification progresses. Such options have to be seriously considered by policy makers, that will have to plan for very ambitious penetration level of renewable energy generation capacity.

Keywords: Load Profile, Decarbonization, Energy Efficiency, New York, Electrification, Forecast