Russia from Bust to Boom: Oil, Politics or the Ruble?

29 Pages Posted: 12 Nov 2004

See all articles by Bruno Merlevede

Bruno Merlevede

Ghent University - Department of General Economics

Bas Van Aarle

Leuven Centre for Irish Studies LCIS; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute); Radboud University Nijmegen - Department of Economics

Koen J. L. Schoors

Ghent University - Centre for Russian International Socio-Political and Economic Studies (CERISE); Ghent University - Department of General Economics

Date Written: October 2004

Abstract

This paper develops and estimates a small macroeconomic model of the Russian economy. The model is tailored to analyze the impact of the oil price, the exchange rate, and political stability on economic performance. The model does very well in explaining Russia's economic history in the period 1995-2002. We then use the model to simulate two sets of scenarios, one with various oil price scenarios and one with various adverse shocks. The simulations suggest that the Russian economy is still very vulnerable to oil price swings, and that these swings have asymmetric effects. Indeed the cost of a downward swing of oil prices seems to be larger than the benefit of an upward swing. We also find that the aggregate effects of an oil price collapse are comparable to these of renewed political instability. Although their propagation mechanism is quite different, both adverse shocks do have a similar effect on real GDP. A real exchange rate appreciation on the other hand has relatively mild effects on real GDP. All in all, it is suggested that Russia should reduce its vulnerability to adverse oil price shocks and maintain political stability.

Keywords: Russia, macroeconomic modeling, macroeconomic stabilizationm

JEL Classification: C70, E17, E58, E16, E63

Suggested Citation

Merlevede, Bruno and van Aarle, Bas and Schoors, Koen J. L., Russia from Bust to Boom: Oil, Politics or the Ruble? (October 2004). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=617442 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.617442

Bruno Merlevede

Ghent University - Department of General Economics ( email )

Tweekerkenstraat 2
Ghent, 9000
Belgium

Bas Van Aarle

Leuven Centre for Irish Studies LCIS ( email )

Janseniusstraat 1
Leuven, 3000
Belgium
+32 16 310433 (Phone)
+32 16 310431 (Fax)

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.cesifo.de

Radboud University Nijmegen - Department of Economics ( email )

P.O.Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen
Netherlands
+31 24 3616172 (Phone)
+31 24 3611846 (Fax)

Koen J. L. Schoors (Contact Author)

Ghent University - Centre for Russian International Socio-Political and Economic Studies (CERISE) ( email )

Tweekerkenstraat 2
Ghent, 9000
Belgium
+32 9 264 34 78 (Phone)
+32 9 265 35 99 (Fax)

Ghent University - Department of General Economics ( email )

Tweekerkenstraat 2
Ghent, 9000
Belgium
+32 9 264 34 78 (Phone)
+32 9 264 35 99 (Fax)

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