Forecasting Models of Retail Rents

Environment and Planning A, Vol. 32, No. 10, pp. 1825-1839, 2000

Posted: 5 Dec 2004

See all articles by Chris Brooks

Chris Brooks

University of Bristol - School of Economics, Finance and Management

Sotiris Tsolacos

University of Reading - Centre for Spatial and Real Estate Economics (CSpREE)

Abstract

This study models retail rents in the UK using a vector autoregressive and time series models. Two retail rent series are used, compiled by LaSalle Investment Management and CB Hillier Parker, and the emphasis is on forecasting. The results suggest that the use of the vector autoregression and time series models in this study can pick up important features of the data that are useful for forecasting purposes. The relative forecasting performance of the models appears to be subject to the length of the forecast time horizon. The results also show that the variables which were appropriate for inclusion in the vector autoregression systems differ between the two rents series, suggesting that the structure of optimal models for predicting retail rents could be specific to the rent index used. Ex ante forecasts from our time series suggest that both LaSalle Investment Management and CB Hillier Parker real retail rents will exhibit an annual growth rate above their long-term mean.

Suggested Citation

Brooks, Chris and Tsolacos, Sotiris, Forecasting Models of Retail Rents. Environment and Planning A, Vol. 32, No. 10, pp. 1825-1839, 2000, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=626706

Chris Brooks (Contact Author)

University of Bristol - School of Economics, Finance and Management ( email )

School of Accounting and Finance
15-19 Tyndalls Park Road
Bristol, BS8 1PQ
United Kingdom

Sotiris Tsolacos

University of Reading - Centre for Spatial and Real Estate Economics (CSpREE) ( email )

Department of Economics Whiteknights P.O. Box 219
Reading, RG6 6AH
United Kingdom
44-0118-931-823 (Phone)
44-118-931-6533 (Fax)

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Abstract Views
1,035
PlumX Metrics