Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of Demographic Change

Duke Economics Working Paper No. 95-37

42 Pages Posted: 12 May 1997

See all articles by Allen C. Kelley

Allen C. Kelley

Duke University - Department of Economics

Robert M. Schmidt

University of Richmond

Abstract

The results of recent correlations showing a negative impact of population growth on economic development in cross-country data for the 1980s, versus "nonsignificant" correlations widely found for the 1960s and 1970s, are examined with contemporaneous and lagged components of demographic change, convergence-type economic modeling, and several statistical frameworks. The separate impacts of births and deaths are found to be notable but offsetting in the earlier periods. In contrast, the short-run costs (benefits) of births (mortality reduction) increase (decrease) significantly in the 1980s, and the favorable labor-force impacts of past births are not fully offsetting.

JEL Classification: J11, O4

Suggested Citation

Kelley, Allen C. and Schmidt, Robert M., Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of Demographic Change. Duke Economics Working Paper No. 95-37, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=826 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.826

Allen C. Kelley (Contact Author)

Duke University - Department of Economics ( email )

213 Social Sciences Building
Box 90097
Durham, NC 27708-0204
United States
919-660-1825 (Phone)
919-490-8995 (Fax)

Robert M. Schmidt

University of Richmond ( email )

Richmond, VA 23173
United States

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