The Costs and Benefits of Front-Loading and Predictability of Immunization

Abstract

How can the international community save more children's lives faster and more effectively in the 21st century? This working paper analyzes the extent to which "frontloading" and predictable vaccine funding, as proposed by the International Finance Facility for Immunization (IFFIm), is more effective in impacting vaccine coverage than spending vaccine funds equally throughout the lives of projects.

The IFFIm is an initiative of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI), and supported by the governments of the United Kingdom, France, Sweden, Italy, Spain and Norway. An initial IFFIm investment of $4 billion is expected to prevent 5 million child deaths by 2015, and more than 5 million future adult deaths.

Using a stylized model, the authors quantify the positive and negative effects of having predictable vaccine funds and front-loading them. They find IFFIm's approach can increase the impact of vaccine coverage by 22%. This is because stable and long-term financing allows vaccine manufacturers and countries to plan for long periods of time, knowing that resources will be available. Frontloading helps to reduce the spread of disease and to immunize large groups of people faster.

Keywords: frontloading, vaccine, immunization

JEL Classification: F0, I1, O0